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Ekans — Hidden Fates — Common

Ekans

BGS 9Simulated

Ekans · Hidden Fates · Common · 26

Character: Ekans

high confidencebullish7930d 12.4%
Estimated Fair Value
$100
Lowest listing $91.558.4% below
Search live listings:eBay activeeBay soldTCGplayer active
Bear Case
$84.27
Base Case
$100
Bull Case
$117

Price History

Dec 8Range $53.42 – $130Jun 5

Opportunity Score

43
  • 8% below fair value+10 pts
  • Reputable seller+7 pts
  • High valuation confidence+6 pts
  • High listing quality (graded)+6 pts
  • Price up 12% over 30 days+5 pts
  • Sales accelerating+3 pts
  • Low active inventory+3 pts
  • Strong demand (10 sales/mo)+3 pts

Investment Thesis

bullish79

Ekans (BGS 9) is currently modestly undervalued, with rising price momentum over the last 30 days (+12.4%). Estimated fair value is $100 against a lowest active listing of $92. Valuation confidence is high based on 7-plus modeled comparable sales.

Bullish: rising prices (+12.4% over 30d) with thin liquidity and stable graded supply.

Active Listings
7
Sales / Month
9.5
Velocity Score
48/100
Moderate
Sales Velocity 30d
+8.1%
Total Graded
2,866
Gem Mint
1,475
Population Growth
+4.7%
Slowing

Grading ROI & Population Trend

Is it worth paying to grade this card? A transparent profit model from the real ungraded cost and the audited graded value, plus a read on graded-supply momentum. The cost and odds levers are modeled assumptions you can adjust — not market-price pins.

Grading ROI (model)
-78.3%
Grading not economical
accelerating population

Population growing 5.3%/mo — supply expanding quickly across 6142 graded.

6,142 graded · 40% gem · +5.3%/mo

Raw cost
$91.55
All-in cost
$121+ $25.00 fee · $4.00 ship
Graded value (per gem)
$100
Expected proceeds
$26.1030% gem → $30.00 · less 13% fee
Net profit / card
-$94.45
Breakeven graded value
$462value needed to break even

Adjust modeled assumptions

These are modeled estimates, not market-price pins.

  • Modeled gem-grade odds: 30% chance of BGS 9 (a modeled probability, not a market price). Non-gem outcomes are valued conservatively at $0.
  • Modeled grading-service fee: $25.00 per card, plus $4.00 shipping/insurance (modeled service costs, not market prices).
  • Modeled marketplace sell fee: 13.0% of graded proceeds (a modeled cost, not a market price).
  • Raw cost and graded value trace to the existing audited references/pins — this panel authors no new market-price value.

Liquidity & Comp Explorer

How easily does this asset trade? Days-to-sell, sell-through rate, the spread between the lowest ask and the recent sold center, and inventory depth — all modeled over this asset's recorded sales and active listings. Explore the sale distribution with a date-range filter and an outlier-trim toggle.

Liquidity & Comp Explorer

Simulated
Days to sell
2.5dmodeled median sale gap
Sell-through
32.0%over 90d window
Bid-ask spread
-8.9%lowest ask vs sold avg
Inventory depth
19active listings
Recent sold avg
$120mean over 90d
Lowest ask
$109cheapest active listing

Comp Explorer

Min
$81.33
Median
$112
Mean
$111
Max
$134

Showing 20 of 22 sales · 2 outliers trimmed

These liquidity signals are modeled deterministically over this asset's existing recorded sales and active listings — they author no new market-price value. Days-to-sell, sell-through and the bid-ask spread are analytical reads over those comps, not a live order book.

How Fair Value Is Built

A transparent, weighted blend of market signals — no black boxes.

SignalDetailReferenceWeight
recent salesVolume-weighted average of recent sold comps95.3250%
listing inventoryAverage of active listing asking prices103.3925%
price trendRecent historical price trend projection109.0925%
population pressureAdjustment for grading population growth (more supply lowers value)-2.3650%
demand momentumAdjustment for sales velocity momentum (rising demand raises value)1.6320%

Active Listings

PriceMarketplaceConditionSellerListedEndsLink
$109eBayGraded6570d agoJan 1View
$116MercariGraded9470d agoJan 1View
$119TCGPlayerGraded9460d agoJun 9View
$119PWCCGraded7355d agoJun 8View
$125Facebook MarketplaceGraded7063d agoJan 1View
$127MercariGraded9755d agoJan 1View
$130Facebook MarketplaceGraded8573d agoJan 1View
$131Facebook MarketplaceGraded9359d agoJan 1View
$132MercariGraded8863d agoJan 1View
$133MercariGraded9459d agoJan 1View
$134TCGPlayerGraded6562d agoJan 1View
$135PWCCGraded9356d agoJun 8View

Recent Sales

PriceMarketplaceConditionSold
$131PWCCGraded56d ago
$134Facebook MarketplaceGraded56d ago
$121Facebook MarketplaceGraded59d ago
$113MercariGraded65d ago
$104PWCCGraded67d ago
$132TCGPlayerGraded70d ago
$114PWCCGraded72d ago
$115eBayGraded72d ago
$113eBayGraded84d ago
$111Facebook MarketplaceGraded92d ago
$126TCGPlayerGraded95d ago
$111MercariGraded95d ago

Signal Track Record

Did this asset's own Opportunity Scores precede outperformance? Each row is a past as-of date, scored point-in-time, with the realized benchmark-relative return that followed.

Data Provenance

Which signals on this page are real market data versus modeled by the deterministic engine. The terminal marks every source honestly.

Reference price
Simulated
Fair value basis
Simulated
Lowest ask (deal)
Simulated
Active listings
Simulated
Card image
Live
Recent sales
Simulated
Population data
Simulated
Liquidity metrics
Simulated
Liquidity analytics
Simulated
Price history
Simulated

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