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Koga's Trap — Hidden Fates — Uncommon

Koga's Trap

CGC 10Simulated

Koga's Trap · Hidden Fates · Uncommon · 59

Character: Koga's

high confidencebearish2730d 12.8%
Estimated Fair Value
$58.76
Lowest listing $51.5012.4% below
Search live listings:eBay activeeBay soldTCGplayer active
Bear Case
$50.36
Base Case
$58.76
Bull Case
$67.10

Price History

Dec 8Range $114 – $204Jun 5

Opportunity Score

39
  • 12% below fair value+14 pts
  • Reputable seller+8 pts
  • High valuation confidence+7 pts
  • High listing quality (graded)+6 pts
  • Strong demand (14 sales/mo)+4 pts

Investment Thesis

bearish27

Koga's Trap (CGC 10) is currently modestly undervalued, with softening price momentum over the last 30 days (-12.8%). Estimated fair value is $59 against a lowest active listing of $52. Valuation confidence is high based on 20-plus modeled comparable sales.

Bearish: softening prices (-12.8% over 30d) amid healthy trading velocity and stable graded supply.

Risk Indicators

  • Negative price momentum over the last 30 days
Active Listings
20
Sales / Month
14.5
Velocity Score
73/100
Fast-moving
Sales Velocity 30d
+1.4%
Total Graded
2,665
Gem Mint
1,516
Population Growth
+4.7%
Slowing

Grading ROI & Population Trend

Is it worth paying to grade this card? A transparent profit model from the real ungraded cost and the audited graded value, plus a read on graded-supply momentum. The cost and odds levers are modeled assumptions you can adjust — not market-price pins.

Grading ROI (model)
-81.0%
Grading not economical
steady population

Population growing 2.0%/mo — steady supply across 2115 graded.

2,115 graded · 37% gem · +2.0%/mo

Raw cost
$51.50
All-in cost
$80.50+ $25.00 fee · $4.00 ship
Graded value (per gem)
$58.76
Expected proceeds
$15.3430% gem → $17.63 · less 13% fee
Net profit / card
-$65.16
Breakeven graded value
$308value needed to break even

Adjust modeled assumptions

These are modeled estimates, not market-price pins.

  • Modeled gem-grade odds: 30% chance of CGC 10 (a modeled probability, not a market price). Non-gem outcomes are valued conservatively at $0.
  • Modeled grading-service fee: $25.00 per card, plus $4.00 shipping/insurance (modeled service costs, not market prices).
  • Modeled marketplace sell fee: 13.0% of graded proceeds (a modeled cost, not a market price).
  • Raw cost and graded value trace to the existing audited references/pins — this panel authors no new market-price value.

Liquidity & Comp Explorer

How easily does this asset trade? Days-to-sell, sell-through rate, the spread between the lowest ask and the recent sold center, and inventory depth — all modeled over this asset's recorded sales and active listings. Explore the sale distribution with a date-range filter and an outlier-trim toggle.

Liquidity & Comp Explorer

Simulated
Days to sell
1.7dmodeled median sale gap
Sell-through
45.0%over 90d window
Bid-ask spread
-10.6%lowest ask vs sold avg
Inventory depth
16active listings
Recent sold avg
$157mean over 90d
Lowest ask
$140cheapest active listing

Comp Explorer

Min
$133
Median
$153
Mean
$152
Max
$168

Showing 21 of 21 sales

These liquidity signals are modeled deterministically over this asset's existing recorded sales and active listings — they author no new market-price value. Days-to-sell, sell-through and the bid-ask spread are analytical reads over those comps, not a live order book.

How Fair Value Is Built

A transparent, weighted blend of market signals — no black boxes.

SignalDetailReferenceWeight
recent salesVolume-weighted average of recent sold comps60.2450%
listing inventoryAverage of active listing asking prices60.7525%
price trendRecent historical price trend projection58.7525%
population pressureAdjustment for grading population growth (more supply lowers value)-2.3350%
demand momentumAdjustment for sales velocity momentum (rising demand raises value)0.2820%

Active Listings

PriceMarketplaceConditionSellerListedEndsLink
$140Facebook MarketplaceGraded8260d agoJun 10View
$141eBayGraded7774d agoJan 1View
$145eBayGraded8469d agoJan 1View
$146Facebook MarketplaceGraded9667d agoJan 1View
$157TCGPlayerGraded6256d agoJan 1View
$157Facebook MarketplaceGraded7272d agoJan 1View
$160TCGPlayerGraded8966d agoJan 1View
$164eBayGraded8463d agoJun 10View
$164TCGPlayerGraded7458d agoJan 1View
$164TCGPlayerGraded6962d agoJan 1View
$167eBayGraded7355d agoJan 1View
$178TCGPlayerGraded8870d agoJan 1View

Recent Sales

PriceMarketplaceConditionSold
$160TCGPlayerGraded56d ago
$165eBayGraded58d ago
$161Facebook MarketplaceGraded60d ago
$159Facebook MarketplaceGraded61d ago
$157PWCCGraded61d ago
$168Facebook MarketplaceGraded63d ago
$160MercariGraded66d ago
$153eBayGraded67d ago
$161Facebook MarketplaceGraded70d ago
$148PWCCGraded78d ago
$156TCGPlayerGraded85d ago
$148eBayGraded85d ago

Signal Track Record

Did this asset's own Opportunity Scores precede outperformance? Each row is a past as-of date, scored point-in-time, with the realized benchmark-relative return that followed.

Data Provenance

Which signals on this page are real market data versus modeled by the deterministic engine. The terminal marks every source honestly.

Reference price
Simulated
Fair value basis
Simulated
Lowest ask (deal)
Simulated
Active listings
Simulated
Card image
Live
Recent sales
Simulated
Population data
Simulated
Liquidity metrics
Simulated
Liquidity analytics
Simulated
Price history
Simulated

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