Lugia Ultra Rare
SimulatedLugia Ultra Rare · EX Ruby & Sapphire · Ultra Rare · 9/109
Character: Lugia
Price History
Opportunity Score
45- 15% below fair value+18 pts
- Low active inventory+6 pts
- High valuation confidence+6 pts
- High listing quality (near mint)+6 pts
- Reputable seller+5 pts
- Strong demand (13 sales/mo)+4 pts
Investment Thesis
bearish39Lugia Ultra Rare is currently modestly undervalued, with softening price momentum over the last 30 days (-9.3%). Estimated fair value is $281 against a lowest active listing of $239. Valuation confidence is high based on 4-plus recent comparable sales.
Bearish: softening prices (-9.3% over 30d) amid healthy trading velocity and stable graded supply.
How Fair Value Is Built
A transparent, weighted blend of market signals — no black boxes.
| Signal | Detail | Reference | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|
| recent sales | Volume-weighted average of recent sold comps | 291.6 | 50% |
| listing inventory | Average of active listing asking prices | 254.45 | 25% |
| price trend | Recent historical price trend projection | 293.62 | 25% |
| demand momentum | Adjustment for sales velocity momentum (rising demand raises value) | -0.62 | 20% |
Active Listings
Recent Sales
| Price | Marketplace | Condition | Sold |
|---|---|---|---|
| $312 | Mercari | Near Mint | 5d ago |
| $307 | PWCC | Near Mint | 16d ago |
| $347 | Mercari | Near Mint | 17d ago |
| $324 | Mercari | Near Mint | 18d ago |
| $324 | Mercari | Near Mint | 18d ago |
| $365 | Facebook Marketplace | Near Mint | 21d ago |
| $380 | TCGPlayer | Near Mint | 25d ago |
| $369 | PWCC | Near Mint | 36d ago |
| $379 | eBay | Near Mint | 43d ago |
| $384 | PWCC | Near Mint | 49d ago |
| $346 | Facebook Marketplace | Near Mint | 57d ago |
| $379 | Mercari | Near Mint | 58d ago |
Signal Track Record
Did this asset's own Opportunity Scores precede outperformance? Each row is a past as-of date, scored point-in-time, with the realized benchmark-relative return that followed.
Data Provenance
Which signals on this page are real market data versus modeled by the deterministic engine. The terminal marks every source honestly.
- Reference price
- Simulated
- Card image
- Simulated
- Recent sales
- Simulated
- Population data
- Simulated
- Liquidity metrics
- Simulated
- Price history
- Simulated
Related Assets
Same character or set.
| Asset | Fair Value | Lowest | Discount | 30d | Avail | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Charizard Holo RareEX Ruby & SapphireBGS 9Simulated
| $460 | $383 | 16.8% | 2.0% | 14 | 52 |
Charizard ex (Illustration Rare)EX Ruby & SapphireSimulated
| $442 | $368 | 16.7% | 7.6% | 15 | 41 |
Umbreon ex (Illustration Rare)EX Ruby & SapphireSimulated
| $404 | $369 | 8.7% | 4.9% | 18 | 34 |
Lugia Secret RareCrown ZenithSimulated
| $456 | $395 | 13.3% | 2.9% | 3 | 57 |
Mewtwo V (Full Art)EX Ruby & SapphireSimulated
| $428 | $360 | 15.9% | 6.7% | 7 | 46 |
Lugia Holo RareBase SetSimulated
| $430 | $365 | 15.3% | 5.4% | 10 | 43 |