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Clefairy — Hidden Fates — Common

Clefairy

Simulated

Clefairy · Hidden Fates · Common · 38

Character: Clefairy

medium confidencebearish1830d 15.9%
Estimated Fair Value
$16.68
Lowest listing $13.8716.9% below
Search live listings:eBay activeeBay soldTCGplayer active
Bear Case
$13.85
Base Case
$16.68
Bull Case
$19.37

Price History

Dec 8Range $53.18 – $78.81Jun 5

Opportunity Score

45
  • 17% below fair value+20 pts
  • Sales accelerating+7 pts
  • Reputable seller+6 pts
  • High listing quality (near mint)+6 pts
  • High valuation confidence+5 pts
  • Strong demand (4 sales/mo)+1 pts

Investment Thesis

bearish18

Clefairy is currently trading at a meaningful discount to fair value, with softening price momentum over the last 30 days (-15.9%). Estimated fair value is $17 against a lowest active listing of $14. Valuation confidence is medium based on 15-plus modeled comparable sales.

Bearish: softening prices (-15.9% over 30d) amid thin liquidity and stable graded supply.

Risk Indicators

  • Negative price momentum over the last 30 days
Active Listings
15
Sales / Month
4.0
Velocity Score
20/100
Illiquid
Sales Velocity 30d
+17.6%
Confidence
68/100

Grading ROI & Population Trend

Is it worth paying to grade this card? A transparent profit model from the real ungraded cost and the audited graded value, plus a read on graded-supply momentum. The cost and odds levers are modeled assumptions you can adjust — not market-price pins.

Grading ROI (model)
-66.2%
Grading not economical
unknown population

No population data reported for this asset.

Raw cost
$13.87
All-in cost
$42.87+ $25.00 fee · $4.00 ship
Graded value (per gem)
$55.48
Expected proceeds
$14.4830% gem → $16.64 · less 13% fee
Net profit / card
-$28.39
Breakeven graded value
$164value needed to break even

Adjust modeled assumptions

These are modeled estimates, not market-price pins.

  • Modeled gem-grade odds: 30% chance of PSA 10 (a modeled probability, not a market price). Non-gem outcomes are valued conservatively at $0.
  • Modeled grading-service fee: $25.00 per card, plus $4.00 shipping/insurance (modeled service costs, not market prices).
  • Modeled marketplace sell fee: 13.0% of graded proceeds (a modeled cost, not a market price).
  • Raw cost and graded value trace to the existing audited references/pins — this panel authors no new market-price value.

Liquidity & Comp Explorer

How easily does this asset trade? Days-to-sell, sell-through rate, the spread between the lowest ask and the recent sold center, and inventory depth — all modeled over this asset's recorded sales and active listings. Explore the sale distribution with a date-range filter and an outlier-trim toggle.

Liquidity & Comp Explorer

Simulated
Days to sell
0.9dmodeled median sale gap
Sell-through
40.0%over 90d window
Bid-ask spread
-24.9%lowest ask vs sold avg
Inventory depth
21active listings
Recent sold avg
$62.92mean over 90d
Lowest ask
$47.26cheapest active listing

Comp Explorer

Min
$53.86
Median
$67.11
Mean
$66.05
Max
$79.36

Showing 23 of 23 sales

These liquidity signals are modeled deterministically over this asset's existing recorded sales and active listings — they author no new market-price value. Days-to-sell, sell-through and the bid-ask spread are analytical reads over those comps, not a live order book.

How Fair Value Is Built

A transparent, weighted blend of market signals — no black boxes.

SignalDetailReferenceWeight
recent salesVolume-weighted average of recent sold comps1750%
listing inventoryAverage of active listing asking prices15.2425%
price trendRecent historical price trend projection15.2225%
demand momentumAdjustment for sales velocity momentum (rising demand raises value)3.5320%

Active Listings

PriceMarketplaceConditionSellerListedEndsLink
$47.26MercariNear Mint8267d agoJan 1View
$49.02TCGPlayerNear Mint8266d agoJan 1View
$49.06PWCCNear Mint8368d agoJan 1View
$49.10PWCCNear Mint9070d agoJun 8View
$50.57MercariNear Mint6670d agoJan 1View
$51.20Facebook MarketplaceNear Mint9368d agoJan 1View
$52.23eBayNear Mint8573d agoJan 1View
$52.26PWCCNear Mint7966d agoJan 1View
$52.62eBayNear Mint8974d agoJun 10View
$53.48TCGPlayerNear Mint6369d agoJan 1View
$54.40TCGPlayerNear Mint9160d agoJan 1View
$54.84TCGPlayerNear Mint8672d agoJun 6View

Recent Sales

PriceMarketplaceConditionSold
$54.86PWCCNear Mint57d ago
$53.86eBayNear Mint68d ago
$57.10MercariNear Mint69d ago
$60.53eBayNear Mint69d ago
$61.82PWCCNear Mint71d ago
$58.36Facebook MarketplaceNear Mint77d ago
$71.82Facebook MarketplaceNear Mint79d ago
$61.97MercariNear Mint79d ago
$62.61PWCCNear Mint80d ago
$67.11PWCCNear Mint81d ago
$68.38Facebook MarketplaceNear Mint85d ago
$69.06Facebook MarketplaceNear Mint85d ago

Signal Track Record

Did this asset's own Opportunity Scores precede outperformance? Each row is a past as-of date, scored point-in-time, with the realized benchmark-relative return that followed.

Data Provenance

Which signals on this page are real market data versus modeled by the deterministic engine. The terminal marks every source honestly.

Reference price
Simulated
Fair value basis
Simulated
Lowest ask (deal)
Simulated
Active listings
Simulated
Card image
Live
Recent sales
Simulated
Population data
Simulated
Liquidity metrics
Simulated
Liquidity analytics
Simulated
Price history
Simulated

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