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Lugia Secret Rare

Simulated

Lugia Secret Rare · Hidden Fates · Secret Rare · 124/163

Character: Lugia

medium confidencebearish3230d 9.4%
Estimated Fair Value
$518
Lowest listing $4748.6% below
Bear Case
$438
Base Case
$518
Bull Case
$597

Price History

Dec 2Range $340 – $507May 30

Opportunity Score

29
  • 9% below fair value+10 pts
  • High listing quality (near mint)+6 pts
  • Reputable seller+6 pts
  • High valuation confidence+4 pts
  • Sales accelerating+3 pts

Investment Thesis

bearish32

Lugia Secret Rare is currently modestly undervalued, with softening price momentum over the last 30 days (-9.4%). Estimated fair value is $518 against a lowest active listing of $474. Valuation confidence is medium based on 14-plus recent comparable sales.

Bearish: softening prices (-9.4% over 30d) amid thin liquidity and stable graded supply.

Active Listings
14
Sales / Month
3.0
Velocity Score
15/100
Illiquid
Sales Velocity 30d
+6.6%
Confidence
61/100

How Fair Value Is Built

A transparent, weighted blend of market signals — no black boxes.

SignalDetailReferenceWeight
recent salesVolume-weighted average of recent sold comps495.3550%
listing inventoryAverage of active listing asking prices549.8225%
price trendRecent historical price trend projection506.2125%
demand momentumAdjustment for sales velocity momentum (rising demand raises value)1.3220%

Active Listings

PriceMarketplaceConditionSellerListedEndsLink
$359eBayNear Mint633d agoJan 1View
$364TCGPlayerNear Mint6215d agoJun 4View
$374TCGPlayerNear Mint8918d agoJan 1View
$379Facebook MarketplaceNear Mint6911d agoJun 4View
$380TCGPlayerNear Mint8820d agoJan 1View
$381Facebook MarketplaceNear Mint8120d agoJan 1View
$393Facebook MarketplaceNear Mint8120d agoJan 1View
$395Facebook MarketplaceNear Mint8415d agoJan 1View
$396TCGPlayerNear Mint956d agoJan 1View
$397MercariNear Mint9921d agoJan 1View
$402MercariNear Mint896d agoJan 1View
$403Facebook MarketplaceNear Mint6919d agoJan 1View

Recent Sales

PriceMarketplaceConditionSold
$401MercariNear Mint3d ago
$380eBayNear Mint4d ago
$355Facebook MarketplaceNear Mint4d ago
$373eBayNear Mint4d ago
$384eBayNear Mint6d ago
$367Facebook MarketplaceNear Mint8d ago
$421PWCCNear Mint8d ago
$385MercariNear Mint9d ago
$442TCGPlayerNear Mint9d ago
$484TCGPlayerNear Mint10d ago
$516PWCCNear Mint13d ago
$466MercariNear Mint14d ago

Signal Track Record

Did this asset's own Opportunity Scores precede outperformance? Each row is a past as-of date, scored point-in-time, with the realized benchmark-relative return that followed.

Data Provenance

Which signals on this page are real market data versus modeled by the deterministic engine. The terminal marks every source honestly.

Reference price
Simulated
Card image
Simulated
Recent sales
Simulated
Population data
Simulated
Liquidity metrics
Simulated
Price history
Simulated

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