Tentacruel
PSA 10SimulatedTentacruel · Fossil · Uncommon · 44
Character: Tentacruel
Price History
Opportunity Score
55- 14% below fair value+16 pts
- Sales accelerating+11 pts
- Reputable seller+6 pts
- High valuation confidence+6 pts
- High listing quality (graded)+6 pts
- Low active inventory+4 pts
- Population growth slowing+4 pts
- Strong demand (8 sales/mo)+2 pts
Investment Thesis
neutral46Tentacruel (PSA 10) is currently modestly undervalued, with stable price momentum over the last 30 days (-3.0%). Estimated fair value is $421 against a lowest active listing of $364. Valuation confidence is high based on 6-plus modeled comparable sales.
Neutral: flat 30-day price action with thin liquidity and stable graded supply.
Grading ROI & Population Trend
Is it worth paying to grade this card? A transparent profit model from the real ungraded cost and the audited graded value, plus a read on graded-supply momentum. The cost and odds levers are modeled assumptions you can adjust — not market-price pins.
Population growing 4.2%/mo — steady supply across 2751 graded.
2,751 graded · 46% gem · +4.2%/mo
- Raw cost
- $364
- All-in cost
- $393+ $25.00 fee · $4.00 ship
- Graded value (per gem)
- $421
- Expected proceeds
- $11030% gem → $126 · less 13% fee
- Net profit / card
- -$282.71
- Breakeven graded value
- $1,504value needed to break even
Adjust modeled assumptions
These are modeled estimates, not market-price pins.
- Modeled gem-grade odds: 30% chance of PSA 10 (a modeled probability, not a market price). Non-gem outcomes are valued conservatively at $0.
- Modeled grading-service fee: $25.00 per card, plus $4.00 shipping/insurance (modeled service costs, not market prices).
- Modeled marketplace sell fee: 13.0% of graded proceeds (a modeled cost, not a market price).
- Raw cost and graded value trace to the existing audited references/pins — this panel authors no new market-price value.
Liquidity & Comp Explorer
How easily does this asset trade? Days-to-sell, sell-through rate, the spread between the lowest ask and the recent sold center, and inventory depth — all modeled over this asset's recorded sales and active listings. Explore the sale distribution with a date-range filter and an outlier-trim toggle.
Liquidity & Comp Explorer
- Days to sell
- 3.0dmodeled median sale gap
- Sell-through
- 29.0%over 90d window
- Bid-ask spread
- -11.1%lowest ask vs sold avg
- Inventory depth
- 17active listings
- Recent sold avg
- $408mean over 90d
- Lowest ask
- $363cheapest active listing
Comp Explorer
- Min
- $336
- Median
- $365
- Mean
- $382
- Max
- $464
Showing 17 of 17 sales
These liquidity signals are modeled deterministically over this asset's existing recorded sales and active listings — they author no new market-price value. Days-to-sell, sell-through and the bid-ask spread are analytical reads over those comps, not a live order book.
How Fair Value Is Built
A transparent, weighted blend of market signals — no black boxes.
| Signal | Detail | Reference | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|
| recent sales | Volume-weighted average of recent sold comps | 396.18 | 50% |
| listing inventory | Average of active listing asking prices | 409.67 | 25% |
| price trend | Recent historical price trend projection | 418.01 | 25% |
| population pressure | Adjustment for grading population growth (more supply lowers value) | -1.36 | 50% |
| demand momentum | Adjustment for sales velocity momentum (rising demand raises value) | 5.38 | 20% |
Active Listings
| Price | Marketplace | Condition | Seller | Listed | Ends | Link |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $363 | TCGPlayer | Graded | 63 | 73d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $364 | eBay | Graded | 80 | 65d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $380 | eBay | Graded | 73 | 64d ago | Jun 8 | View |
| $413 | TCGPlayer | Graded | 79 | 57d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $427 | PWCC | Graded | 68 | 64d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $436 | Mercari | Graded | 88 | 70d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $436 | Mercari | Graded | 100 | 69d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $438 | Facebook Marketplace | Graded | 69 | 57d ago | Jun 8 | View |
| $439 | eBay | Graded | 86 | 72d ago | Jun 9 | View |
| $448 | eBay | Graded | 90 | 66d ago | Jun 7 | View |
| $454 | TCGPlayer | Graded | 88 | 65d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $457 | Mercari | Graded | 76 | 64d ago | Jan 1 | View |
Recent Sales
| Price | Marketplace | Condition | Sold |
|---|---|---|---|
| $378 | Facebook Marketplace | Graded | 58d ago |
| $365 | Mercari | Graded | 59d ago |
| $362 | PWCC | Graded | 64d ago |
| $414 | eBay | Graded | 65d ago |
| $442 | Mercari | Graded | 71d ago |
| $464 | Mercari | Graded | 71d ago |
| $433 | eBay | Graded | 77d ago |
| $411 | eBay | Graded | 93d ago |
| $425 | PWCC | Graded | 94d ago |
| $376 | PWCC | Graded | 96d ago |
| $362 | Mercari | Graded | 102d ago |
| $339 | eBay | Graded | 102d ago |
Signal Track Record
Did this asset's own Opportunity Scores precede outperformance? Each row is a past as-of date, scored point-in-time, with the realized benchmark-relative return that followed.
Data Provenance
Which signals on this page are real market data versus modeled by the deterministic engine. The terminal marks every source honestly.
- Reference price
- Simulated
- Fair value basis
- Simulated
- Lowest ask (deal)
- Simulated
- Active listings
- Simulated
- Card image
- Live
- Recent sales
- Simulated
- Population data
- Simulated
- Liquidity metrics
- Simulated
- Liquidity analytics
- Simulated
- Price history
- Simulated
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