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Lucario ex (Special Illustration)

BGS 9Simulated

Lucario ex (Special Illustration) · EX Ruby & Sapphire · Special Illustration Rare · 44/109

Character: Lucario

high confidencebullish6330d 7.2%
Estimated Fair Value
$620
Lowest listing $6160.6% below
Bear Case
$495
Base Case
$620
Bull Case
$744

Price History

Dec 2Range $338$652May 30

Opportunity Score

25
  • Reputable seller+8 pts
  • High valuation confidence+6 pts
  • High listing quality (graded)+6 pts
  • Price up 7% over 30 days+3 pts
  • Strong demand (7 sales/mo)+2 pts

Investment Thesis

bullish63

Lucario ex (Special Illustration) (BGS 9) is currently fairly valued, with rising price momentum over the last 30 days (+7.2%). Estimated fair value is $620 against a lowest active listing of $616. Valuation confidence is high based on 10-plus recent comparable sales.

Bullish: rising prices (+7.2% over 30d) with thin liquidity and rising graded population (6.5%/mo).

Risk Indicators

  • Rising graded population may pressure prices
Active Listings
10
Sales / Month
7.0
Velocity Score
35/100
Moderate
Sales Velocity 30d
-4.5%
Total Graded
7,256
Gem Mint
1,599
Population Growth
+6.5%
Rising — supply pressure

How Fair Value Is Built

A transparent, weighted blend of market signals — no black boxes.

SignalDetailReferenceWeight
recent salesVolume-weighted average of recent sold comps624.8850%
listing inventoryAverage of active listing asking prices698.0925%
price trendRecent historical price trend projection639.2425%
population pressureAdjustment for grading population growth (more supply lowers value)-3.2650%
demand momentumAdjustment for sales velocity momentum (rising demand raises value)-0.9120%

Active Listings

PriceMarketplaceConditionSellerListedEndsLink
$389eBayGraded8921d agoJan 1View
$398Facebook MarketplaceGraded813d agoJan 1View
$424PWCCGraded8212d agoJan 1View
$425PWCCGraded7817d agoJan 1View
$428Facebook MarketplaceGraded949d agoJan 1View
$455PWCCGraded916d agoJan 1View

Recent Sales

PriceMarketplaceConditionSold
$423Facebook MarketplaceGraded7d ago
$464Facebook MarketplaceGraded8d ago
$500Facebook MarketplaceGraded9d ago
$500eBayGraded9d ago
$469Facebook MarketplaceGraded12d ago
$486TCGPlayerGraded15d ago
$423eBayGraded20d ago
$430Facebook MarketplaceGraded21d ago
$464TCGPlayerGraded21d ago
$409PWCCGraded30d ago
$467TCGPlayerGraded32d ago
$446Facebook MarketplaceGraded33d ago

Signal Track Record

Did this asset's own Opportunity Scores precede outperformance? Each row is a past as-of date, scored point-in-time, with the realized benchmark-relative return that followed.

Data Provenance

Which signals on this page are real market data versus modeled by the deterministic engine. The terminal marks every source honestly.

Reference price
Simulated
Card image
Simulated
Recent sales
Simulated
Population data
Simulated
Liquidity metrics
Simulated
Price history
Simulated

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