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Clefable — Hidden Fates — Rare

Clefable

Simulated

Clefable · Hidden Fates · Rare · 40

Character: Clefable

high confidencebearish2130d 22.2%
Estimated Fair Value
$36.07
Lowest listing $31.3313.1% below
Search live listings:eBay activeeBay soldTCGplayer active
Bear Case
$29.90
Base Case
$36.07
Bull Case
$41.64

Price History

Dec 8Range $52.31 – $87.34Jun 5

Opportunity Score

36
  • 13% below fair value+15 pts
  • High valuation confidence+7 pts
  • High listing quality (near mint)+6 pts
  • Reputable seller+5 pts
  • Strong demand (8 sales/mo)+2 pts

Investment Thesis

bearish21

Clefable is currently modestly undervalued, with softening price momentum over the last 30 days (-22.2%). Estimated fair value is $36 against a lowest active listing of $31. Valuation confidence is high based on 9-plus modeled comparable sales.

Bearish: softening prices (-22.2% over 30d) amid thin liquidity and stable graded supply.

Risk Indicators

  • Negative price momentum over the last 30 days
Active Listings
9
Sales / Month
7.5
Velocity Score
38/100
Moderate
Sales Velocity 30d
+1.4%
Confidence
94/100

Grading ROI & Population Trend

Is it worth paying to grade this card? A transparent profit model from the real ungraded cost and the audited graded value, plus a read on graded-supply momentum. The cost and odds levers are modeled assumptions you can adjust — not market-price pins.

Grading ROI (model)
-45.8%
Grading not economical
unknown population

No population data reported for this asset.

Raw cost
$31.33
All-in cost
$60.33+ $25.00 fee · $4.00 ship
Graded value (per gem)
$125
Expected proceeds
$32.7130% gem → $37.60 · less 13% fee
Net profit / card
-$27.62
Breakeven graded value
$231value needed to break even

Adjust modeled assumptions

These are modeled estimates, not market-price pins.

  • Modeled gem-grade odds: 30% chance of PSA 10 (a modeled probability, not a market price). Non-gem outcomes are valued conservatively at $0.
  • Modeled grading-service fee: $25.00 per card, plus $4.00 shipping/insurance (modeled service costs, not market prices).
  • Modeled marketplace sell fee: 13.0% of graded proceeds (a modeled cost, not a market price).
  • Raw cost and graded value trace to the existing audited references/pins — this panel authors no new market-price value.

Liquidity & Comp Explorer

How easily does this asset trade? Days-to-sell, sell-through rate, the spread between the lowest ask and the recent sold center, and inventory depth — all modeled over this asset's recorded sales and active listings. Explore the sale distribution with a date-range filter and an outlier-trim toggle.

Liquidity & Comp Explorer

Simulated
Days to sell
1.8dmodeled median sale gap
Sell-through
37.0%over 90d window
Bid-ask spread
-10.1%lowest ask vs sold avg
Inventory depth
17active listings
Recent sold avg
$65.10mean over 90d
Lowest ask
$58.51cheapest active listing

Comp Explorer

Min
$55.68
Median
$66.09
Mean
$65.83
Max
$74.87

Showing 17 of 17 sales

These liquidity signals are modeled deterministically over this asset's existing recorded sales and active listings — they author no new market-price value. Days-to-sell, sell-through and the bid-ask spread are analytical reads over those comps, not a live order book.

How Fair Value Is Built

A transparent, weighted blend of market signals — no black boxes.

SignalDetailReferenceWeight
recent salesVolume-weighted average of recent sold comps39.7850%
listing inventoryAverage of active listing asking prices35.6425%
price trendRecent historical price trend projection28.6725%
demand momentumAdjustment for sales velocity momentum (rising demand raises value)0.2820%

Active Listings

PriceMarketplaceConditionSellerListedEndsLink
$58.51eBayNear Mint8269d agoJan 1View
$58.80TCGPlayerNear Mint7874d agoJun 9View
$61.67MercariNear Mint8872d agoJan 1View
$63.70PWCCNear Mint6959d agoJan 1View
$64.45Facebook MarketplaceNear Mint8559d agoJan 1View
$67.25eBayNear Mint7867d agoJan 1View
$67.63TCGPlayerNear Mint7868d agoJan 1View
$67.88Facebook MarketplaceNear Mint7161d agoJan 1View
$68.10PWCCNear Mint6455d agoJan 1View
$69.45MercariNear Mint9562d agoJan 1View
$71.01PWCCNear Mint6272d agoJan 1View
$71.08PWCCNear Mint8657d agoJan 1View

Recent Sales

PriceMarketplaceConditionSold
$63.08MercariNear Mint57d ago
$68.34MercariNear Mint58d ago
$71.64Facebook MarketplaceNear Mint60d ago
$71.37eBayNear Mint71d ago
$67.84Facebook MarketplaceNear Mint72d ago
$66.09Facebook MarketplaceNear Mint77d ago
$58.18PWCCNear Mint79d ago
$69.09eBayNear Mint80d ago
$59.71Facebook MarketplaceNear Mint80d ago
$55.68MercariNear Mint87d ago
$74.87eBayNear Mint96d ago
$67.24eBayNear Mint100d ago

Signal Track Record

Did this asset's own Opportunity Scores precede outperformance? Each row is a past as-of date, scored point-in-time, with the realized benchmark-relative return that followed.

Data Provenance

Which signals on this page are real market data versus modeled by the deterministic engine. The terminal marks every source honestly.

Reference price
Simulated
Fair value basis
Simulated
Lowest ask (deal)
Simulated
Active listings
Simulated
Card image
Live
Recent sales
Simulated
Population data
Simulated
Liquidity metrics
Simulated
Liquidity analytics
Simulated
Price history
Simulated

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