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Jolteon — Hidden Fates — Rare

Jolteon

Simulated

Jolteon · Hidden Fates · Rare · 23

Character: Jolteon

medium confidenceneutral5830d 2.6%
Estimated Fair Value
$24.50
Lowest listing $20.7615.3% below
Search live listings:eBay activeeBay soldTCGplayer active
Bear Case
$20.95
Base Case
$24.50
Bull Case
$28.12

Price History

Dec 8Range $51.74 – $92.78Jun 5

Opportunity Score

44
  • 15% below fair value+18 pts
  • Sales accelerating+10 pts
  • High listing quality (near mint)+6 pts
  • Reputable seller+5 pts
  • High valuation confidence+4 pts
  • Price up 3% over 30 days+1 pts

Investment Thesis

neutral58

Jolteon is currently trading at a meaningful discount to fair value, with stable price momentum over the last 30 days (+2.6%). Estimated fair value is $24 against a lowest active listing of $21. Valuation confidence is medium based on 11-plus modeled comparable sales.

Neutral: flat 30-day price action with thin liquidity and stable graded supply.

Active Listings
11
Sales / Month
3.0
Velocity Score
15/100
Illiquid
Sales Velocity 30d
+23.8%
Confidence
61/100

Grading ROI & Population Trend

Is it worth paying to grade this card? A transparent profit model from the real ungraded cost and the audited graded value, plus a read on graded-supply momentum. The cost and odds levers are modeled assumptions you can adjust — not market-price pins.

Grading ROI (model)
-56.4%
Grading not economical
unknown population

No population data reported for this asset.

Raw cost
$20.76
All-in cost
$49.76+ $25.00 fee · $4.00 ship
Graded value (per gem)
$83.04
Expected proceeds
$21.6730% gem → $24.91 · less 13% fee
Net profit / card
-$28.09
Breakeven graded value
$191value needed to break even

Adjust modeled assumptions

These are modeled estimates, not market-price pins.

  • Modeled gem-grade odds: 30% chance of PSA 10 (a modeled probability, not a market price). Non-gem outcomes are valued conservatively at $0.
  • Modeled grading-service fee: $25.00 per card, plus $4.00 shipping/insurance (modeled service costs, not market prices).
  • Modeled marketplace sell fee: 13.0% of graded proceeds (a modeled cost, not a market price).
  • Raw cost and graded value trace to the existing audited references/pins — this panel authors no new market-price value.

Liquidity & Comp Explorer

How easily does this asset trade? Days-to-sell, sell-through rate, the spread between the lowest ask and the recent sold center, and inventory depth — all modeled over this asset's recorded sales and active listings. Explore the sale distribution with a date-range filter and an outlier-trim toggle.

Liquidity & Comp Explorer

Simulated
Days to sell
1.7dmodeled median sale gap
Sell-through
59.0%over 90d window
Bid-ask spread
-13.0%lowest ask vs sold avg
Inventory depth
13active listings
Recent sold avg
$78.63mean over 90d
Lowest ask
$68.39cheapest active listing

Comp Explorer

Min
$66.70
Median
$77.29
Mean
$77.13
Max
$88.67

Showing 21 of 22 sales · 1 outlier trimmed

These liquidity signals are modeled deterministically over this asset's existing recorded sales and active listings — they author no new market-price value. Days-to-sell, sell-through and the bid-ask spread are analytical reads over those comps, not a live order book.

How Fair Value Is Built

A transparent, weighted blend of market signals — no black boxes.

SignalDetailReferenceWeight
recent salesVolume-weighted average of recent sold comps22.2650%
listing inventoryAverage of active listing asking prices24.725%
price trendRecent historical price trend projection24.2925%
demand momentumAdjustment for sales velocity momentum (rising demand raises value)4.7620%

Active Listings

PriceMarketplaceConditionSellerListedEndsLink
$68.39MercariNear Mint6055d agoJan 1View
$68.48MercariNear Mint8467d agoJan 1View
$70.52eBayNear Mint9175d agoJan 1View
$72.19MercariNear Mint8560d agoJan 1View
$74.07Facebook MarketplaceNear Mint9370d agoJan 1View
$77.87MercariNear Mint8672d agoJun 7View
$78.81MercariNear Mint8575d agoJan 1View
$80.59TCGPlayerNear Mint6562d agoJun 6View
$81.77MercariNear Mint9570d agoJan 1View
$86.04Facebook MarketplaceNear Mint6872d agoJan 1View
$86.06Facebook MarketplaceNear Mint7764d agoJan 1View
$86.45MercariNear Mint9072d agoJan 1View

Recent Sales

PriceMarketplaceConditionSold
$68.26PWCCNear Mint56d ago
$99.56TCGPlayerNear Mint60d ago
$78.08MercariNear Mint62d ago
$81.97PWCCNear Mint63d ago
$82.19MercariNear Mint64d ago
$82.04TCGPlayerNear Mint67d ago
$77.63TCGPlayerNear Mint69d ago
$81.60PWCCNear Mint72d ago
$88.67PWCCNear Mint72d ago
$76.86PWCCNear Mint75d ago
$74.74Facebook MarketplaceNear Mint78d ago
$75.78PWCCNear Mint78d ago

Signal Track Record

Did this asset's own Opportunity Scores precede outperformance? Each row is a past as-of date, scored point-in-time, with the realized benchmark-relative return that followed.

Data Provenance

Which signals on this page are real market data versus modeled by the deterministic engine. The terminal marks every source honestly.

Reference price
Simulated
Fair value basis
Simulated
Lowest ask (deal)
Simulated
Active listings
Simulated
Card image
Live
Recent sales
Simulated
Population data
Simulated
Liquidity metrics
Simulated
Liquidity analytics
Simulated
Price history
Simulated

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