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Gengar ex (Illustration Rare)

Simulated

Gengar ex (Illustration Rare) · HeartGold SoulSilver · Illustration Rare · 39/123

Character: Gengar

medium confidencebearish3830d 6.3%
Estimated Fair Value
$388
Lowest listing $32915.3% below
Bear Case
$335
Base Case
$388
Bull Case
$440

Price History

Dec 2Range $221 – $369May 30

Opportunity Score

41
  • 15% below fair value+18 pts
  • Reputable seller+8 pts
  • High listing quality (near mint)+6 pts
  • Sales accelerating+5 pts
  • High valuation confidence+4 pts

Investment Thesis

bearish38

Gengar ex (Illustration Rare) is currently trading at a meaningful discount to fair value, with softening price momentum over the last 30 days (-6.3%). Estimated fair value is $388 against a lowest active listing of $329. Valuation confidence is medium based on 9-plus recent comparable sales.

Bearish: softening prices (-6.3% over 30d) amid thin liquidity and stable graded supply.

Active Listings
9
Sales / Month
3.0
Velocity Score
15/100
Illiquid
Sales Velocity 30d
+13.1%
Confidence
60/100

How Fair Value Is Built

A transparent, weighted blend of market signals — no black boxes.

SignalDetailReferenceWeight
recent salesVolume-weighted average of recent sold comps385.0350%
listing inventoryAverage of active listing asking prices379.5725%
price trendRecent historical price trend projection363.6725%
demand momentumAdjustment for sales velocity momentum (rising demand raises value)2.6220%

Active Listings

PriceMarketplaceConditionSellerListedEndsLink
$330MercariNear Mint812d agoJan 1View
$335MercariNear Mint7621d agoJan 1View
$340TCGPlayerNear Mint8016d agoMay 31View
$348PWCCNear Mint887d agoJan 1View
$365PWCCNear Mint7219d agoJan 1View
$379eBayNear Mint9113d agoJan 1View
$397TCGPlayerNear Mint7913d agoJan 1View
$402MercariNear Mint9018d agoJan 1View
$405eBayNear Mint9320d agoJan 1View
$408eBayNear Mint9018d agoJan 1View
$412TCGPlayerNear Mint8310d agoJan 1View
$414Facebook MarketplaceNear Mint8218d agoJan 1View

Recent Sales

PriceMarketplaceConditionSold
$352Facebook MarketplaceNear Mint17h ago
$345MercariNear Mint2d ago
$335PWCCNear Mint3d ago
$312eBayNear Mint6d ago
$338MercariNear Mint10d ago
$337Facebook MarketplaceNear Mint11d ago
$324eBayNear Mint11d ago
$305Facebook MarketplaceNear Mint12d ago
$310PWCCNear Mint13d ago
$330TCGPlayerNear Mint14d ago
$278TCGPlayerNear Mint18d ago
$274MercariNear Mint18d ago

Signal Track Record

Did this asset's own Opportunity Scores precede outperformance? Each row is a past as-of date, scored point-in-time, with the realized benchmark-relative return that followed.

Data Provenance

Which signals on this page are real market data versus modeled by the deterministic engine. The terminal marks every source honestly.

Reference price
Simulated
Card image
Simulated
Recent sales
Simulated
Population data
Simulated
Liquidity metrics
Simulated
Price history
Simulated

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