Price History
Opportunity Score
45- 17% below fair value+20 pts
- Reputable seller+8 pts
- High valuation confidence+7 pts
- High listing quality (near mint)+6 pts
- Strong demand (9 sales/mo)+3 pts
- Sales accelerating+2 pts
Investment Thesis
bearish38Pikachu Promo is currently trading at a meaningful discount to fair value, with softening price momentum over the last 30 days (-8.4%). Estimated fair value is $852 against a lowest active listing of $705. Valuation confidence is high based on 21-plus recent comparable sales.
Bearish: softening prices (-8.4% over 30d) amid thin liquidity and stable graded supply.
How Fair Value Is Built
A transparent, weighted blend of market signals — no black boxes.
| Signal | Detail | Reference | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|
| recent sales | Volume-weighted average of recent sold comps | 872.47 | 50% |
| listing inventory | Average of active listing asking prices | 827.93 | 25% |
| price trend | Recent historical price trend projection | 806.23 | 25% |
| demand momentum | Adjustment for sales velocity momentum (rising demand raises value) | 0.86 | 20% |
Active Listings
Recent Sales
| Price | Marketplace | Condition | Sold |
|---|---|---|---|
| $729 | PWCC | Near Mint | 4d ago |
| $755 | PWCC | Near Mint | 4d ago |
| $789 | eBay | Near Mint | 9d ago |
| $855 | Mercari | Near Mint | 13d ago |
| $778 | PWCC | Near Mint | 15d ago |
| $721 | Facebook Marketplace | Near Mint | 16d ago |
| $791 | eBay | Near Mint | 17d ago |
| $794 | PWCC | Near Mint | 23d ago |
| $742 | Facebook Marketplace | Near Mint | 31d ago |
| $750 | Mercari | Near Mint | 36d ago |
| $736 | PWCC | Near Mint | 43d ago |
| $704 | PWCC | Near Mint | 55d ago |
Signal Track Record
Did this asset's own Opportunity Scores precede outperformance? Each row is a past as-of date, scored point-in-time, with the realized benchmark-relative return that followed.
Data Provenance
Which signals on this page are real market data versus modeled by the deterministic engine. The terminal marks every source honestly.
- Reference price
- Simulated
- Card image
- Simulated
- Recent sales
- Simulated
- Population data
- Simulated
- Liquidity metrics
- Simulated
- Price history
- Simulated
Related Assets
Same character or set.
| Asset | Fair Value | Lowest | Discount | 30d | Avail | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Charizard Ultra RareFossilSimulated
| $1,778 | $1,558 | 12.4% | 10.1% | 9 | 35 |
Charizard V (Full Art)FossilSimulated
| $1,223 | $1,031 | 15.7% | 9.3% | 5 | 46 |
Pikachu V (Full Art)Hidden FatesSimulated
| $223 | $198 | 11.4% | 2.2% | 7 | 38 |
Umbreon VMAX (Alt Art)FossilSimulated
| $1,570 | $1,351 | 13.9% | 9.2% | 8 | 45 |
Pikachu ex (Illustration Rare)HeartGold SoulSilverSimulated
| $485 | $482 | 0.7% | 3.2% | 8 | 28 |
Pikachu (Illustrator-style)Scarlet & Violet 151PSA 10Simulated
| $689 | $556 | 19.3% | 12.7% | 10 | 56 |