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Giovanni's Exile — Hidden Fates — Uncommon

Giovanni's Exile

CGC 9.5Simulated

Giovanni's Exile · Hidden Fates · Uncommon · 57

Character: Giovanni's

high confidencebullish8930d 12.7%
Estimated Fair Value
$17.66
Lowest listing $16.993.8% below
Search live listings:eBay activeeBay soldTCGplayer active
Bear Case
$15.20
Base Case
$17.66
Bull Case
$20.17

Price History

Dec 8Range $63.29 – $104Jun 5

Opportunity Score

49
  • Low active inventory+8 pts
  • Population growth slowing+8 pts
  • Reputable seller+7 pts
  • High listing quality (graded)+6 pts
  • High valuation confidence+6 pts
  • Price up 13% over 30 days+5 pts
  • 4% below fair value+4 pts
  • Strong demand (14 sales/mo)+4 pts

Investment Thesis

bullish89

Giovanni's Exile (CGC 9.5) is currently fairly valued, with rising price momentum over the last 30 days (+12.7%). Estimated fair value is $18 against a lowest active listing of $17. Valuation confidence is high based on 2-plus modeled comparable sales.

Bullish: rising prices (+12.7% over 30d) with healthy trading velocity and stable graded supply.

Risk Indicators

  • Thin liquidity — few active listings, wider spreads likely
Active Listings
2
Sales / Month
14.5
Velocity Score
73/100
Fast-moving
Sales Velocity 30d
-11.3%
Total Graded
7,957
Gem Mint
2,898
Population Growth
-0.2%
Stable supply

Grading ROI & Population Trend

Is it worth paying to grade this card? A transparent profit model from the real ungraded cost and the audited graded value, plus a read on graded-supply momentum. The cost and odds levers are modeled assumptions you can adjust — not market-price pins.

Grading ROI (model)
-90.0%
Grading not economical
accelerating population

Population growing 6.4%/mo — supply expanding quickly across 8048 graded.

8,048 graded · 54% gem · +6.4%/mo

Raw cost
$16.99
All-in cost
$45.99+ $25.00 fee · $4.00 ship
Graded value (per gem)
$17.66
Expected proceeds
$4.6130% gem → $5.30 · less 13% fee
Net profit / card
-$41.38
Breakeven graded value
$176value needed to break even

Adjust modeled assumptions

These are modeled estimates, not market-price pins.

  • Modeled gem-grade odds: 30% chance of CGC 9.5 (a modeled probability, not a market price). Non-gem outcomes are valued conservatively at $0.
  • Modeled grading-service fee: $25.00 per card, plus $4.00 shipping/insurance (modeled service costs, not market prices).
  • Modeled marketplace sell fee: 13.0% of graded proceeds (a modeled cost, not a market price).
  • Raw cost and graded value trace to the existing audited references/pins — this panel authors no new market-price value.

Liquidity & Comp Explorer

How easily does this asset trade? Days-to-sell, sell-through rate, the spread between the lowest ask and the recent sold center, and inventory depth — all modeled over this asset's recorded sales and active listings. Explore the sale distribution with a date-range filter and an outlier-trim toggle.

Liquidity & Comp Explorer

Simulated
Days to sell
7.9dmodeled median sale gap
Sell-through
25.0%over 90d window
Bid-ask spread
-16.2%lowest ask vs sold avg
Inventory depth
15active listings
Recent sold avg
$87.25mean over 90d
Lowest ask
$73.12cheapest active listing

Comp Explorer

Min
$77.82
Median
$88.71
Mean
$88.70
Max
$102

Showing 8 of 8 sales

These liquidity signals are modeled deterministically over this asset's existing recorded sales and active listings — they author no new market-price value. Days-to-sell, sell-through and the bid-ask spread are analytical reads over those comps, not a live order book.

How Fair Value Is Built

A transparent, weighted blend of market signals — no black boxes.

SignalDetailReferenceWeight
recent salesVolume-weighted average of recent sold comps17.4950%
listing inventoryAverage of active listing asking prices18.2625%
price trendRecent historical price trend projection18.9725%
population pressureAdjustment for grading population growth (more supply lowers value)0.150%
demand momentumAdjustment for sales velocity momentum (rising demand raises value)-2.2620%

Active Listings

PriceMarketplaceConditionSellerListedEndsLink
$73.12eBayGraded8672d agoJun 9View
$73.50Facebook MarketplaceGraded9063d agoJan 1View
$74.39MercariGraded9569d agoJan 1View
$74.69eBayGraded7669d agoJan 1View
$75.04MercariGraded9874d agoJan 1View
$75.11MercariGraded9467d agoJan 1View
$81.79eBayGraded7174d agoJun 10View
$83.71MercariGraded6958d agoJan 1View
$88.12MercariGraded9657d agoJan 1View
$89.01Facebook MarketplaceGraded6361d agoJun 9View
$89.76TCGPlayerGraded9358d agoJan 1View
$90.69MercariGraded7058d agoJan 1View

Recent Sales

PriceMarketplaceConditionSold
$82.76PWCCGraded58d ago
$77.82eBayGraded62d ago
$80.21eBayGraded72d ago
$102eBayGraded78d ago
$93.82PWCCGraded88d ago
$94.32eBayGraded93d ago
$83.60TCGPlayerGraded99d ago
$95.41eBayGraded103d ago

Signal Track Record

Did this asset's own Opportunity Scores precede outperformance? Each row is a past as-of date, scored point-in-time, with the realized benchmark-relative return that followed.

Data Provenance

Which signals on this page are real market data versus modeled by the deterministic engine. The terminal marks every source honestly.

Reference price
Simulated
Fair value basis
Simulated
Lowest ask (deal)
Simulated
Active listings
Simulated
Card image
Live
Recent sales
Simulated
Population data
Simulated
Liquidity metrics
Simulated
Liquidity analytics
Simulated
Price history
Simulated

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