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Clefairy — Hidden Fates — Common

Clefairy

PSA 9Simulated

Clefairy · Hidden Fates · Common · 39

Character: Clefairy

high confidencebullish8730d ▲18.7%
Estimated Fair Value
$18.96
Lowest listing $17.716.6% below
Search live listings:eBay activeeBay soldTCGplayer active
Bear Case
$15.67
Base Case
$18.96
Bull Case
$22.31

Price History

Dec 8Range $58.42 – $138Jun 5

Opportunity Score

37
  • 7% below fair value+8 pts
  • Price up 19% over 30 days+8 pts
  • High valuation confidence+7 pts
  • High listing quality (graded)+6 pts
  • Reputable seller+5 pts
  • Strong demand (12 sales/mo)+4 pts

Investment Thesis

bullish87

Clefairy (PSA 9) is currently modestly undervalued, with rising price momentum over the last 30 days (+18.7%). Estimated fair value is $19 against a lowest active listing of $18. Valuation confidence is high based on 18-plus modeled comparable sales.

Bullish: rising prices (+18.7% over 30d) with healthy trading velocity and rising graded population (6.6%/mo).

Risk Indicators

  • Rising graded population may pressure prices
Active Listings
18
Sales / Month
12.5
Velocity Score
63/100
Fast-moving
Sales Velocity 30d
-11.9%
Total Graded
2,462
Gem Mint
776
Population Growth
+6.6%
Rising — supply pressure

Grading ROI & Population Trend

Is it worth paying to grade this card? A transparent profit model from the real ungraded cost and the audited graded value, plus a read on graded-supply momentum. The cost and odds levers are modeled assumptions you can adjust — not market-price pins.

Grading ROI (model)
-89.4%
Grading not economical
accelerating population

Population growing 5.0%/mo — supply expanding quickly across 3618 graded.

3,618 graded · 57% gem · +5.0%/mo

Raw cost
$17.71
All-in cost
$46.71+ $25.00 fee · $4.00 ship
Graded value (per gem)
$18.96
Expected proceeds
$4.9530% gem → $5.69 · less 13% fee
Net profit / card
-$41.76
Breakeven graded value
$179value needed to break even

Adjust modeled assumptions

These are modeled estimates, not market-price pins.

  • Modeled gem-grade odds: 30% chance of PSA 9 (a modeled probability, not a market price). Non-gem outcomes are valued conservatively at $0.
  • Modeled grading-service fee: $25.00 per card, plus $4.00 shipping/insurance (modeled service costs, not market prices).
  • Modeled marketplace sell fee: 13.0% of graded proceeds (a modeled cost, not a market price).
  • Raw cost and graded value trace to the existing audited references/pins — this panel authors no new market-price value.

Liquidity & Comp Explorer

How easily does this asset trade? Days-to-sell, sell-through rate, the spread between the lowest ask and the recent sold center, and inventory depth — all modeled over this asset's recorded sales and active listings. Explore the sale distribution with a date-range filter and an outlier-trim toggle.

Liquidity & Comp Explorer

Simulated
Days to sell
2.5dmodeled median sale gap
Sell-through
26.0%over 90d window
Bid-ask spread
-26.3%lowest ask vs sold avg
Inventory depth
20active listings
Recent sold avg
$111mean over 90d
Lowest ask
$81.69cheapest active listing

Comp Explorer

Min
$97.69
Median
$124
Mean
$121
Max
$143

Showing 15 of 15 sales

These liquidity signals are modeled deterministically over this asset's existing recorded sales and active listings — they author no new market-price value. Days-to-sell, sell-through and the bid-ask spread are analytical reads over those comps, not a live order book.

How Fair Value Is Built

A transparent, weighted blend of market signals — no black boxes.

SignalDetailReferenceWeight
recent salesVolume-weighted average of recent sold comps19.4250%
listing inventoryAverage of active listing asking prices20.7325%
price trendRecent historical price trend projection20.7825%
population pressureAdjustment for grading population growth (more supply lowers value)-3.3150%
demand momentumAdjustment for sales velocity momentum (rising demand raises value)-2.3820%

Active Listings

PriceMarketplaceConditionSellerListedEndsLink
$81.69MercariGraded8162d agoJan 1View
$84.82PWCCGraded6260d agoJan 1View
$85.76TCGPlayerGraded8262d agoJan 1View
$85.89PWCCGraded8969d agoJan 1View
$86.64TCGPlayerGraded9965d agoJun 6View
$87.14Facebook MarketplaceGraded8465d agoJan 1View
$87.66Facebook MarketplaceGraded9662d agoJan 1View
$88.31TCGPlayerGraded9258d agoJan 1View
$96.89PWCCGraded6560d agoJan 1View
$97.26MercariGraded6966d agoJun 8View
$101Facebook MarketplaceGraded9163d agoJan 1View
$102Facebook MarketplaceGraded9068d agoJan 1View

Recent Sales

PriceMarketplaceConditionSold
$97.69PWCCGraded58d ago
$101MercariGraded60d ago
$99.59eBayGraded63d ago
$114TCGPlayerGraded71d ago
$120MercariGraded86d ago
$115Facebook MarketplaceGraded87d ago
$128TCGPlayerGraded90d ago
$126PWCCGraded90d ago
$124eBayGraded91d ago
$124eBayGraded94d ago
$124MercariGraded96d ago
$143MercariGraded98d ago

Signal Track Record

Did this asset's own Opportunity Scores precede outperformance? Each row is a past as-of date, scored point-in-time, with the realized benchmark-relative return that followed.

Data Provenance

Which signals on this page are real market data versus modeled by the deterministic engine. The terminal marks every source honestly.

Reference price
Simulated
Fair value basis
Simulated
Lowest ask (deal)
Simulated
Active listings
Simulated
Card image
Live
Recent sales
Simulated
Population data
Simulated
Liquidity metrics
Simulated
Liquidity analytics
Simulated
Price history
Simulated

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