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Golem — Hidden Fates — Rare

Golem

CGC 9Simulated

Golem · Hidden Fates · Rare · 35

Character: Golem

medium confidencebearish1930d 15.9%
Estimated Fair Value
$42.73
Lowest listing $34.9418.2% below
Search live listings:eBay activeeBay soldTCGplayer active
Bear Case
$36.45
Base Case
$42.73
Bull Case
$48.86

Price History

Dec 8Range $61.22 – $91.44Jun 5

Opportunity Score

60
  • 18% below fair value+21 pts
  • Population growth slowing+8 pts
  • Sales accelerating+7 pts
  • Low active inventory+6 pts
  • High listing quality (graded)+6 pts
  • Reputable seller+6 pts
  • High valuation confidence+5 pts
  • Strong demand (5 sales/mo)+2 pts

Investment Thesis

bearish19

Golem (CGC 9) is currently trading at a meaningful discount to fair value, with softening price momentum over the last 30 days (-15.9%). Estimated fair value is $43 against a lowest active listing of $35. Valuation confidence is medium based on 4-plus modeled comparable sales.

Bearish: softening prices (-15.9% over 30d) amid thin liquidity and stable graded supply.

Risk Indicators

  • Negative price momentum over the last 30 days
Active Listings
4
Sales / Month
5.0
Velocity Score
25/100
Illiquid
Sales Velocity 30d
+18.2%
Total Graded
2,504
Gem Mint
1,016
Population Growth
-0.7%
Stable supply

Grading ROI & Population Trend

Is it worth paying to grade this card? A transparent profit model from the real ungraded cost and the audited graded value, plus a read on graded-supply momentum. The cost and odds levers are modeled assumptions you can adjust — not market-price pins.

Grading ROI (model)
-82.6%
Grading not economical
steady population

Population growing 3.5%/mo — steady supply across 4352 graded.

4,352 graded · 32% gem · +3.5%/mo

Raw cost
$34.94
All-in cost
$63.94+ $25.00 fee · $4.00 ship
Graded value (per gem)
$42.73
Expected proceeds
$11.1530% gem → $12.82 · less 13% fee
Net profit / card
-$52.79
Breakeven graded value
$245value needed to break even

Adjust modeled assumptions

These are modeled estimates, not market-price pins.

  • Modeled gem-grade odds: 30% chance of CGC 9 (a modeled probability, not a market price). Non-gem outcomes are valued conservatively at $0.
  • Modeled grading-service fee: $25.00 per card, plus $4.00 shipping/insurance (modeled service costs, not market prices).
  • Modeled marketplace sell fee: 13.0% of graded proceeds (a modeled cost, not a market price).
  • Raw cost and graded value trace to the existing audited references/pins — this panel authors no new market-price value.

Liquidity & Comp Explorer

How easily does this asset trade? Days-to-sell, sell-through rate, the spread between the lowest ask and the recent sold center, and inventory depth — all modeled over this asset's recorded sales and active listings. Explore the sale distribution with a date-range filter and an outlier-trim toggle.

Liquidity & Comp Explorer

Simulated
Days to sell
1.7dmodeled median sale gap
Sell-through
63.0%over 90d window
Bid-ask spread
-12.7%lowest ask vs sold avg
Inventory depth
11active listings
Recent sold avg
$81.80mean over 90d
Lowest ask
$71.45cheapest active listing

Comp Explorer

Min
$57.31
Median
$77.18
Mean
$76.01
Max
$93.16

Showing 39 of 39 sales

These liquidity signals are modeled deterministically over this asset's existing recorded sales and active listings — they author no new market-price value. Days-to-sell, sell-through and the bid-ask spread are analytical reads over those comps, not a live order book.

How Fair Value Is Built

A transparent, weighted blend of market signals — no black boxes.

SignalDetailReferenceWeight
recent salesVolume-weighted average of recent sold comps41.8950%
listing inventoryAverage of active listing asking prices41.5425%
price trendRecent historical price trend projection39.0325%
population pressureAdjustment for grading population growth (more supply lowers value)0.3450%
demand momentumAdjustment for sales velocity momentum (rising demand raises value)3.6520%

Active Listings

PriceMarketplaceConditionSellerListedEndsLink
$71.45MercariGraded7470d agoJan 1View
$72.95PWCCGraded7873d agoJan 1View
$73.06TCGPlayerGraded9959d agoJan 1View
$75.52TCGPlayerGraded8360d agoJan 1View
$78.42Facebook MarketplaceGraded7759d agoJan 1View
$79.28PWCCGraded8556d agoJan 1View
$80.23PWCCGraded7463d agoJan 1View
$81.13PWCCGraded6765d agoJan 1View
$81.87TCGPlayerGraded8859d agoJun 7View
$83.59eBayGraded8066d agoJan 1View
$87.01eBayGraded10063d agoJan 1View

Recent Sales

PriceMarketplaceConditionSold
$84.26eBayGraded55d ago
$79.81Facebook MarketplaceGraded57d ago
$88.07TCGPlayerGraded59d ago
$87.32TCGPlayerGraded60d ago
$90.79MercariGraded61d ago
$86.66PWCCGraded64d ago
$86.24PWCCGraded67d ago
$82.17eBayGraded68d ago
$79.04TCGPlayerGraded69d ago
$65.73MercariGraded73d ago
$72.28TCGPlayerGraded74d ago
$71.85eBayGraded75d ago

Signal Track Record

Did this asset's own Opportunity Scores precede outperformance? Each row is a past as-of date, scored point-in-time, with the realized benchmark-relative return that followed.

Data Provenance

Which signals on this page are real market data versus modeled by the deterministic engine. The terminal marks every source honestly.

Reference price
Simulated
Fair value basis
Simulated
Lowest ask (deal)
Simulated
Active listings
Simulated
Card image
Live
Recent sales
Simulated
Population data
Simulated
Liquidity metrics
Simulated
Liquidity analytics
Simulated
Price history
Simulated

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