PokéAlpha
Back to dashboard

Gyarados VMAX (Alt Art)

Simulated

Gyarados VMAX (Alt Art) · Scarlet & Violet 151 · Alt Art · 90/207

Character: Gyarados

high confidencebearish2730d 15.5%
Estimated Fair Value
$247
Lowest listing $20815.8% below
Bear Case
$202
Base Case
$247
Bull Case
$290

Price History

Dec 2Range $262 – $389May 30

Opportunity Score

46
  • 16% below fair value+18 pts
  • Reputable seller+7 pts
  • High valuation confidence+6 pts
  • High listing quality (near mint)+6 pts
  • Strong demand (15 sales/mo)+5 pts
  • Low active inventory+4 pts

Investment Thesis

bearish27

Gyarados VMAX (Alt Art) is currently trading at a meaningful discount to fair value, with softening price momentum over the last 30 days (-15.5%). Estimated fair value is $247 against a lowest active listing of $208. Valuation confidence is high based on 6-plus recent comparable sales.

Bearish: softening prices (-15.5% over 30d) amid healthy trading velocity and stable graded supply.

Risk Indicators

  • Negative price momentum over the last 30 days
Active Listings
6
Sales / Month
15.0
Velocity Score
75/100
Fast-moving
Sales Velocity 30d
+0.5%
Confidence
87/100

How Fair Value Is Built

A transparent, weighted blend of market signals — no black boxes.

SignalDetailReferenceWeight
recent salesVolume-weighted average of recent sold comps252.6650%
listing inventoryAverage of active listing asking prices238.2625%
price trendRecent historical price trend projection241.7425%
demand momentumAdjustment for sales velocity momentum (rising demand raises value)0.120%

Active Listings

PriceMarketplaceConditionSellerListedEndsLink
$273TCGPlayerNear Mint637d agoJan 1View
$276MercariNear Mint816d agoJan 1View
$282TCGPlayerNear Mint984d agoJan 1View
$282Facebook MarketplaceNear Mint6911d agoJan 1View
$287TCGPlayerNear Mint9818d agoJan 1View
$290PWCCNear Mint7019d agoJan 1View
$296PWCCNear Mint8512d agoJan 1View
$302TCGPlayerNear Mint7315d agoMay 31View
$305PWCCNear Mint847d agoJan 1View
$315MercariNear Mint918d agoJan 1View
$328PWCCNear Mint7014d agoJan 1View
$335eBayNear Mint8615d agoJan 1View

Recent Sales

PriceMarketplaceConditionSold
$290TCGPlayerNear Mint2d ago
$320TCGPlayerNear Mint2d ago
$358MercariNear Mint11d ago
$313MercariNear Mint21d ago
$319TCGPlayerNear Mint21d ago
$294eBayNear Mint32d ago
$306MercariNear Mint33d ago
$320TCGPlayerNear Mint35d ago
$323MercariNear Mint35d ago
$304TCGPlayerNear Mint37d ago
$300TCGPlayerNear Mint38d ago
$333eBayNear Mint41d ago

Signal Track Record

Did this asset's own Opportunity Scores precede outperformance? Each row is a past as-of date, scored point-in-time, with the realized benchmark-relative return that followed.

Data Provenance

Which signals on this page are real market data versus modeled by the deterministic engine. The terminal marks every source honestly.

Reference price
Simulated
Card image
Simulated
Recent sales
Simulated
Population data
Simulated
Liquidity metrics
Simulated
Price history
Simulated

Related Assets

Same character or set.

AssetFair ValueLowestDiscount30dAvailScore
Charizard Secret RareScarlet & Violet 151BGS 9.5Simulated
  • Sales accelerating+11 pts
  • 9% below fair value+10 pts
  • Price up 31% over 30 days+8 pts
$827$7548.8%31.3%2061
Umbreon PromoScarlet & Violet 151Simulated
  • 11% below fair value+13 pts
  • Sales accelerating+7 pts
  • High valuation confidence+7 pts
$326$29110.8%9.6%1047
Umbreon V (Full Art)Scarlet & Violet 151BGS 9.5Simulated
  • 14% below fair value+17 pts
  • Low active inventory+8 pts
  • Reputable seller+8 pts
$495$42514.2%8.8%258
Umbreon ex (Illustration Rare)Scarlet & Violet 151Simulated
  • 14% below fair value+16 pts
  • Sales accelerating+9 pts
  • High valuation confidence+7 pts
$296$25613.7%16.0%2155
Pikachu (Illustrator-style)Scarlet & Violet 151PSA 10Simulated
  • 13% below fair value+15 pts
  • Reputable seller+7 pts
  • High valuation confidence+7 pts
$583$50813.0%12.9%944
Umbreon PromoScarlet & Violet 151Simulated
  • 18% below fair value+21 pts
  • Sales accelerating+8 pts
  • High valuation confidence+7 pts
$300$24518.3%12.9%1351