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Lugia Ultra Rare

Simulated

Lugia Ultra Rare · Jungle · Ultra Rare · 2/64

Character: Lugia

high confidencebullish9330d 20.1%
Estimated Fair Value
$977
Lowest listing $9542.3% below
Bear Case
$831
Base Case
$977
Bull Case
$1,129

Price History

Dec 2Range $820 – $1.1KMay 30

Opportunity Score

46
  • Low active inventory+8 pts
  • Price up 20% over 30 days+8 pts
  • Sales accelerating+7 pts
  • Reputable seller+7 pts
  • High listing quality (near mint)+6 pts
  • High valuation confidence+6 pts
  • Strong demand (10 sales/mo)+3 pts
  • 2% below fair value+3 pts

Investment Thesis

bullish93

Lugia Ultra Rare is currently fairly valued, with rising price momentum over the last 30 days (+20.1%). Estimated fair value is $977 against a lowest active listing of $954. Valuation confidence is high based on 2-plus recent comparable sales.

Bullish: rising prices (+20.1% over 30d) with healthy trading velocity and stable graded supply.

Risk Indicators

  • Thin liquidity — few active listings, wider spreads likely
Active Listings
2
Sales / Month
10.0
Velocity Score
50/100
Moderate
Sales Velocity 30d
+16.6%
Confidence
81/100

How Fair Value Is Built

A transparent, weighted blend of market signals — no black boxes.

SignalDetailReferenceWeight
recent salesVolume-weighted average of recent sold comps907.5350%
listing inventoryAverage of active listing asking prices978.7325%
price trendRecent historical price trend projection986.7425%
demand momentumAdjustment for sales velocity momentum (rising demand raises value)3.3220%

Active Listings

PriceMarketplaceConditionSellerListedEndsLink
$849PWCCNear Mint882d agoJan 1View
$903MercariNear Mint852d agoJan 1View
$917MercariNear Mint798d agoJan 1View
$958eBayNear Mint7116d agoJun 4View
$981eBayNear Mint713d agoJun 1View
$983PWCCNear Mint9612d agoJan 1View
$997PWCCNear Mint7713d agoJan 1View
$1,007PWCCNear Mint7811d agoJan 1View

Recent Sales

PriceMarketplaceConditionSold
$882PWCCNear Mint3d ago
$940eBayNear Mint4d ago
$955eBayNear Mint4d ago
$922Facebook MarketplaceNear Mint5d ago
$866TCGPlayerNear Mint6d ago
$924eBayNear Mint6d ago
$808PWCCNear Mint10d ago
$848Facebook MarketplaceNear Mint10d ago
$857Facebook MarketplaceNear Mint12d ago
$915Facebook MarketplaceNear Mint13d ago
$906eBayNear Mint15d ago
$831PWCCNear Mint16d ago

Signal Track Record

Did this asset's own Opportunity Scores precede outperformance? Each row is a past as-of date, scored point-in-time, with the realized benchmark-relative return that followed.

Data Provenance

Which signals on this page are real market data versus modeled by the deterministic engine. The terminal marks every source honestly.

Reference price
Simulated
Card image
Simulated
Recent sales
Simulated
Population data
Simulated
Liquidity metrics
Simulated
Price history
Simulated

Related Assets

Same character or set.

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  • Sales accelerating+8 pts
  • Reputable seller+7 pts
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  • 14% below fair value+16 pts
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Umbreon Secret RareJungleBGS 10Simulated
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  • High valuation confidence+7 pts
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Lugia Ultra RareEX Ruby & SapphireSimulated
  • Sales accelerating+10 pts
  • 7% below fair value+8 pts
  • Low active inventory+6 pts
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Lugia Holo RareBase SetSimulated
  • 16% below fair value+19 pts
  • Sales accelerating+10 pts
  • High valuation confidence+7 pts
$424$35616.1%1.6%1854
Rayquaza V (Full Art)JungleSimulated
  • 17% below fair value+20 pts
  • Reputable seller+8 pts
  • High valuation confidence+7 pts
$799$66017.4%16.7%1546