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Giovanni's Exile — Hidden Fates — Uncommon

Giovanni's Exile

Simulated

Giovanni's Exile · Hidden Fates · Uncommon · 57

Character: Giovanni's

high confidencebullish7530d 8.8%
Estimated Fair Value
$45.92
Lowest listing $41.2810.1% below
Search live listings:eBay activeeBay soldTCGplayer active
Bear Case
$38.84
Base Case
$45.92
Bull Case
$53.27

Price History

Dec 8Range $66.44 – $112Jun 5

Opportunity Score

47
  • 10% below fair value+12 pts
  • Reputable seller+7 pts
  • Low active inventory+7 pts
  • High listing quality (near mint)+6 pts
  • High valuation confidence+6 pts
  • Sales accelerating+4 pts
  • Price up 9% over 30 days+4 pts
  • Strong demand (8 sales/mo)+2 pts

Investment Thesis

bullish75

Giovanni's Exile is currently modestly undervalued, with rising price momentum over the last 30 days (+8.8%). Estimated fair value is $46 against a lowest active listing of $41. Valuation confidence is high based on 3-plus modeled comparable sales.

Bullish: rising prices (+8.8% over 30d) with thin liquidity and stable graded supply.

Risk Indicators

  • Thin liquidity — few active listings, wider spreads likely
Active Listings
3
Sales / Month
8.0
Velocity Score
40/100
Moderate
Sales Velocity 30d
+8.8%
Confidence
82/100

Grading ROI & Population Trend

Is it worth paying to grade this card? A transparent profit model from the real ungraded cost and the audited graded value, plus a read on graded-supply momentum. The cost and odds levers are modeled assumptions you can adjust — not market-price pins.

Grading ROI (model)
-38.7%
Grading not economical
unknown population

No population data reported for this asset.

Raw cost
$41.28
All-in cost
$70.28+ $25.00 fee · $4.00 ship
Graded value (per gem)
$165
Expected proceeds
$43.1030% gem → $49.54 · less 13% fee
Net profit / card
-$27.18
Breakeven graded value
$269value needed to break even

Adjust modeled assumptions

These are modeled estimates, not market-price pins.

  • Modeled gem-grade odds: 30% chance of PSA 10 (a modeled probability, not a market price). Non-gem outcomes are valued conservatively at $0.
  • Modeled grading-service fee: $25.00 per card, plus $4.00 shipping/insurance (modeled service costs, not market prices).
  • Modeled marketplace sell fee: 13.0% of graded proceeds (a modeled cost, not a market price).
  • Raw cost and graded value trace to the existing audited references/pins — this panel authors no new market-price value.

Liquidity & Comp Explorer

How easily does this asset trade? Days-to-sell, sell-through rate, the spread between the lowest ask and the recent sold center, and inventory depth — all modeled over this asset's recorded sales and active listings. Explore the sale distribution with a date-range filter and an outlier-trim toggle.

Liquidity & Comp Explorer

Simulated
Days to sell
2.5dmodeled median sale gap
Sell-through
55.0%over 90d window
Bid-ask spread
-19.6%lowest ask vs sold avg
Inventory depth
13active listings
Recent sold avg
$81.55mean over 90d
Lowest ask
$65.61cheapest active listing

Comp Explorer

Min
$70.37
Median
$86.71
Mean
$84.34
Max
$95.20

Showing 26 of 26 sales

These liquidity signals are modeled deterministically over this asset's existing recorded sales and active listings — they author no new market-price value. Days-to-sell, sell-through and the bid-ask spread are analytical reads over those comps, not a live order book.

How Fair Value Is Built

A transparent, weighted blend of market signals — no black boxes.

SignalDetailReferenceWeight
recent salesVolume-weighted average of recent sold comps43.750%
listing inventoryAverage of active listing asking prices45.4625%
price trendRecent historical price trend projection47.6825%
demand momentumAdjustment for sales velocity momentum (rising demand raises value)1.7520%

Active Listings

PriceMarketplaceConditionSellerListedEndsLink
$65.61eBayNear Mint10069d agoJan 1View
$66.41TCGPlayerNear Mint9761d agoJan 1View
$66.75TCGPlayerNear Mint7864d agoJan 1View
$67.92PWCCNear Mint8359d agoJan 1View
$68.57TCGPlayerNear Mint6664d agoJan 1View
$68.78MercariNear Mint6758d agoJan 1View
$74.33Facebook MarketplaceNear Mint6867d agoJun 7View
$74.84Facebook MarketplaceNear Mint8566d agoJan 1View
$75.58MercariNear Mint6160d agoJun 9View
$78.36TCGPlayerNear Mint6161d agoJan 1View
$81.06Facebook MarketplaceNear Mint6275d agoJun 10View
$81.82Facebook MarketplaceNear Mint6072d agoJan 1View

Recent Sales

PriceMarketplaceConditionSold
$71.76PWCCNear Mint54d ago
$70.79Facebook MarketplaceNear Mint55d ago
$72.71MercariNear Mint55d ago
$78.42eBayNear Mint58d ago
$86.57MercariNear Mint58d ago
$76.01PWCCNear Mint58d ago
$83.12MercariNear Mint64d ago
$91.44PWCCNear Mint68d ago
$86.34Facebook MarketplaceNear Mint70d ago
$75.79MercariNear Mint74d ago
$70.37Facebook MarketplaceNear Mint78d ago
$80.86PWCCNear Mint80d ago

Signal Track Record

Did this asset's own Opportunity Scores precede outperformance? Each row is a past as-of date, scored point-in-time, with the realized benchmark-relative return that followed.

Data Provenance

Which signals on this page are real market data versus modeled by the deterministic engine. The terminal marks every source honestly.

Reference price
Simulated
Fair value basis
Simulated
Lowest ask (deal)
Simulated
Active listings
Simulated
Card image
Live
Recent sales
Simulated
Population data
Simulated
Liquidity metrics
Simulated
Liquidity analytics
Simulated
Price history
Simulated

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