Gardevoir Ultra Rare
BGS 9SimulatedGardevoir Ultra Rare · XY Evolutions · Ultra Rare · 95/108
Character: Gardevoir
Price History
Opportunity Score
46- 7% below fair value+8 pts
- Reputable seller+8 pts
- Low active inventory+6 pts
- High listing quality (graded)+6 pts
- Population growth slowing+6 pts
- High valuation confidence+6 pts
- Sales accelerating+4 pts
- Strong demand (9 sales/mo)+3 pts
Investment Thesis
bearish28Gardevoir Ultra Rare (BGS 9) is currently modestly undervalued, with softening price momentum over the last 30 days (-12.1%). Estimated fair value is $325 against a lowest active listing of $302. Valuation confidence is high based on 4-plus recent comparable sales.
Bearish: softening prices (-12.1% over 30d) amid thin liquidity and stable graded supply.
Risk Indicators
- Negative price momentum over the last 30 days
How Fair Value Is Built
A transparent, weighted blend of market signals — no black boxes.
| Signal | Detail | Reference | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|
| recent sales | Volume-weighted average of recent sold comps | 320.26 | 50% |
| listing inventory | Average of active listing asking prices | 330.04 | 25% |
| price trend | Recent historical price trend projection | 311.61 | 25% |
| population pressure | Adjustment for grading population growth (more supply lowers value) | -0.68 | 50% |
| demand momentum | Adjustment for sales velocity momentum (rising demand raises value) | 2.07 | 20% |
Active Listings
| Price | Marketplace | Condition | Seller | Listed | Ends | Link |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $350 | Mercari | Graded | 96 | 17d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $352 | Facebook Marketplace | Graded | 84 | 7d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $352 | TCGPlayer | Graded | 81 | 12d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $353 | eBay | Graded | 75 | 20d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $355 | TCGPlayer | Graded | 83 | 12d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $355 | TCGPlayer | Graded | 81 | 17d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $364 | eBay | Graded | 90 | 16d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $374 | Facebook Marketplace | Graded | 85 | 6d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $392 | Facebook Marketplace | Graded | 71 | 18d ago | Jun 4 | View |
| $399 | TCGPlayer | Graded | 93 | 16d ago | Jun 2 | View |
| $417 | Mercari | Graded | 89 | 1d ago | Jan 1 | View |
Recent Sales
| Price | Marketplace | Condition | Sold |
|---|---|---|---|
| $320 | TCGPlayer | Graded | 3d ago |
| $369 | PWCC | Graded | 4d ago |
| $357 | TCGPlayer | Graded | 6d ago |
| $352 | TCGPlayer | Graded | 9d ago |
| $298 | Mercari | Graded | 14d ago |
| $298 | Facebook Marketplace | Graded | 19d ago |
| $324 | Mercari | Graded | 20d ago |
| $340 | TCGPlayer | Graded | 20d ago |
| $367 | Mercari | Graded | 24d ago |
| $343 | Facebook Marketplace | Graded | 26d ago |
| $394 | Facebook Marketplace | Graded | 30d ago |
| $394 | PWCC | Graded | 31d ago |
Signal Track Record
Did this asset's own Opportunity Scores precede outperformance? Each row is a past as-of date, scored point-in-time, with the realized benchmark-relative return that followed.
Data Provenance
Which signals on this page are real market data versus modeled by the deterministic engine. The terminal marks every source honestly.
- Reference price
- Simulated
- Card image
- Simulated
- Recent sales
- Simulated
- Population data
- Simulated
- Liquidity metrics
- Simulated
- Price history
- Simulated
Related Assets
Same character or set.
| Asset | Fair Value | Lowest | Discount | 30d | Avail | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Charizard ex (Illustration Rare)XY EvolutionsSimulated
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Umbreon Holo RareXY EvolutionsSimulated
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Umbreon VMAX (Alt Art)XY EvolutionsBGS 9Simulated
| $1,049 | $993 | 5.4% | 21.6% | 23 | 42 |
Charizard VMAX (Alt Art)XY EvolutionsSimulated
| $1,079 | $923 | 14.5% | 8.5% | 15 | 46 |
Charizard ex (Special Illustration)XY EvolutionsSimulated
| $582 | $545 | 6.4% | 4.5% | 23 | 28 |
Pikachu VMAX (Alt Art)XY EvolutionsPSA 9.5Simulated
| $1,256 | $1,189 | 5.3% | 6.5% | 15 | 35 |