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Gengar ex (Illustration Rare)

BGS 10Simulated

Gengar ex (Illustration Rare) · HeartGold SoulSilver · Illustration Rare · 62/123

Character: Gengar

high confidenceneutral5930d 4.7%
Estimated Fair Value
$959
Lowest listing $80016.6% below
Bear Case
$841
Base Case
$959
Bull Case
$1,077

Price History

Dec 2Range $730$1.1KMay 30

Opportunity Score

56
  • 17% below fair value+19 pts
  • Sales accelerating+11 pts
  • Reputable seller+6 pts
  • High listing quality (graded)+6 pts
  • High valuation confidence+5 pts
  • Low active inventory+4 pts
  • Price up 5% over 30 days+2 pts
  • Strong demand (5 sales/mo)+2 pts
  • Population growth slowing+1 pts

Investment Thesis

neutral59

Gengar ex (Illustration Rare) (BGS 10) is currently trading at a meaningful discount to fair value, with stable price momentum over the last 30 days (+4.7%). Estimated fair value is $959 against a lowest active listing of $800. Valuation confidence is high based on 6-plus recent comparable sales.

Neutral: flat 30-day price action with thin liquidity and stable graded supply.

Active Listings
6
Sales / Month
5.0
Velocity Score
25/100
Illiquid
Sales Velocity 30d
+28.0%
Total Graded
757
Gem Mint
404
Population Growth
+4.3%
Slowing

How Fair Value Is Built

A transparent, weighted blend of market signals — no black boxes.

SignalDetailReferenceWeight
recent salesVolume-weighted average of recent sold comps935.4350%
listing inventoryAverage of active listing asking prices901.9725%
price trendRecent historical price trend projection941.3625%
population pressureAdjustment for grading population growth (more supply lowers value)-2.1450%
demand momentumAdjustment for sales velocity momentum (rising demand raises value)5.5920%

Active Listings

PriceMarketplaceConditionSellerListedEndsLink
$1,026TCGPlayerGraded8720d agoJan 1View
$1,026PWCCGraded9817d agoJan 1View
$1,041eBayGraded8015d agoJan 1View
$1,080MercariGraded788d agoJan 1View
$1,090PWCCGraded7814d agoJan 1View
$1,099eBayGraded928d agoJun 1View
$1,263Facebook MarketplaceGraded9312d agoMay 31View
$1,270eBayGraded938d agoJan 1View
$1,296eBayGraded6512d agoJan 1View
$1,302MercariGraded9411d agoJun 4View
$1,310PWCCGraded8410d agoJan 1View

Recent Sales

PriceMarketplaceConditionSold
$958MercariGraded12d ago
$1,003TCGPlayerGraded15d ago
$946PWCCGraded37d ago
$1,007eBayGraded38d ago
$1,007eBayGraded38d ago
$863PWCCGraded45d ago
$1,148eBayGraded54d ago
$1,077Facebook MarketplaceGraded55d ago

Signal Track Record

Did this asset's own Opportunity Scores precede outperformance? Each row is a past as-of date, scored point-in-time, with the realized benchmark-relative return that followed.

Data Provenance

Which signals on this page are real market data versus modeled by the deterministic engine. The terminal marks every source honestly.

Reference price
Simulated
Card image
Simulated
Recent sales
Simulated
Population data
Simulated
Liquidity metrics
Simulated
Price history
Simulated

Same character or set.

AssetFair ValueLowestDiscount30dAvailScore
Umbreon PromoHeartGold SoulSilverSimulated
  • 10% below fair value+12 pts
  • Sales accelerating+8 pts
  • Reputable seller+8 pts
$416$37310.4%5.6%553
Pikachu ex (Illustration Rare)HeartGold SoulSilverSimulated
  • 18% below fair value+21 pts
  • High valuation confidence+7 pts
  • High listing quality (near mint)+6 pts
$425$35017.6%8.6%1442
Umbreon Ultra RareHeartGold SoulSilverCGC 9Simulated
  • 18% below fair value+22 pts
  • Population growth slowing+7 pts
  • Sales accelerating+7 pts
$669$54618.4%18.0%659
Gengar V (Full Art)XY EvolutionsSimulated
  • Price up 28% over 30 days+8 pts
  • Reputable seller+8 pts
  • High valuation confidence+7 pts
$359$363-1.2%27.6%837
Gengar Secret RareHeartGold SoulSilverBGS 9Simulated
  • 8% below fair value+9 pts
  • Population growth slowing+8 pts
  • Low active inventory+6 pts
$723$6677.8%6.1%449
Gengar ex (Special Illustration)Hidden FatesSimulated
  • 16% below fair value+18 pts
  • High valuation confidence+7 pts
  • Reputable seller+6 pts
$256$21715.5%1.4%944