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Metapod — Hidden Fates — Uncommon

Metapod

Simulated

Metapod · Hidden Fates · Uncommon · 2

Character: Metapod

high confidencebullish8230d ▲12.3%
Estimated Fair Value
$14.96
Lowest listing $13.4310.3% below
Search live listings:eBay activeeBay soldTCGplayer active
Bear Case
$12.90
Base Case
$14.96
Bull Case
$17.03

Price History

Dec 8Range $40.84 – $90.51Jun 5

Opportunity Score

48
  • 10% below fair value+12 pts
  • Sales accelerating+8 pts
  • Reputable seller+8 pts
  • High valuation confidence+7 pts
  • High listing quality (near mint)+6 pts
  • Price up 12% over 30 days+5 pts
  • Strong demand (7 sales/mo)+2 pts

Investment Thesis

bullish82

Metapod is currently modestly undervalued, with rising price momentum over the last 30 days (+12.3%). Estimated fair value is $15 against a lowest active listing of $13. Valuation confidence is high based on 21-plus modeled comparable sales.

Bullish: rising prices (+12.3% over 30d) with thin liquidity and stable graded supply.

Active Listings
21
Sales / Month
7.0
Velocity Score
35/100
Moderate
Sales Velocity 30d
+20.9%
Confidence
93/100

Grading ROI & Population Trend

Is it worth paying to grade this card? A transparent profit model from the real ungraded cost and the audited graded value, plus a read on graded-supply momentum. The cost and odds levers are modeled assumptions you can adjust — not market-price pins.

Grading ROI (model)
-67.0%
Grading not economical
unknown population

No population data reported for this asset.

Raw cost
$13.43
All-in cost
$42.43+ $25.00 fee · $4.00 ship
Graded value (per gem)
$53.72
Expected proceeds
$14.0230% gem → $16.12 · less 13% fee
Net profit / card
-$28.41
Breakeven graded value
$163value needed to break even

Adjust modeled assumptions

These are modeled estimates, not market-price pins.

  • Modeled gem-grade odds: 30% chance of PSA 10 (a modeled probability, not a market price). Non-gem outcomes are valued conservatively at $0.
  • Modeled grading-service fee: $25.00 per card, plus $4.00 shipping/insurance (modeled service costs, not market prices).
  • Modeled marketplace sell fee: 13.0% of graded proceeds (a modeled cost, not a market price).
  • Raw cost and graded value trace to the existing audited references/pins — this panel authors no new market-price value.

Liquidity & Comp Explorer

How easily does this asset trade? Days-to-sell, sell-through rate, the spread between the lowest ask and the recent sold center, and inventory depth — all modeled over this asset's recorded sales and active listings. Explore the sale distribution with a date-range filter and an outlier-trim toggle.

Liquidity & Comp Explorer

Simulated
Days to sell
4.3dmodeled median sale gap
Sell-through
24.0%over 90d window
Bid-ask spread
-30.4%lowest ask vs sold avg
Inventory depth
19active listings
Recent sold avg
$62.19mean over 90d
Lowest ask
$43.28cheapest active listing

Comp Explorer

Min
$61.23
Median
$65.50
Mean
$65.91
Max
$70.60

Showing 6 of 9 sales · 3 outliers trimmed

These liquidity signals are modeled deterministically over this asset's existing recorded sales and active listings — they author no new market-price value. Days-to-sell, sell-through and the bid-ask spread are analytical reads over those comps, not a live order book.

How Fair Value Is Built

A transparent, weighted blend of market signals — no black boxes.

SignalDetailReferenceWeight
recent salesVolume-weighted average of recent sold comps13.8350%
listing inventoryAverage of active listing asking prices15.0925%
price trendRecent historical price trend projection14.725%
demand momentumAdjustment for sales velocity momentum (rising demand raises value)4.1920%

Active Listings

PriceMarketplaceConditionSellerListedEndsLink
$43.28MercariNear Mint6670d agoJan 1View
$45.76Facebook MarketplaceNear Mint7674d agoJan 1View
$46.46MercariNear Mint8669d agoJan 1View
$46.59eBayNear Mint6573d agoJun 9View
$48.20MercariNear Mint9367d agoJan 1View
$48.59PWCCNear Mint10071d agoJan 1View
$48.89PWCCNear Mint9565d agoJan 1View
$49.23PWCCNear Mint7662d agoJan 1View
$49.37TCGPlayerNear Mint6375d agoJan 1View
$50.62MercariNear Mint6259d agoJan 1View
$52.31MercariNear Mint6271d agoJan 1View
$52.55PWCCNear Mint7065d agoJan 1View

Recent Sales

PriceMarketplaceConditionSold
$45.35PWCCNear Mint59d ago
$61.23PWCCNear Mint71d ago
$65.96Facebook MarketplaceNear Mint72d ago
$64.95eBayNear Mint73d ago
$65.03TCGPlayerNear Mint78d ago
$70.60TCGPlayerNear Mint83d ago
$67.71TCGPlayerNear Mint97d ago
$79.97PWCCNear Mint102d ago
$79.49MercariNear Mint113d ago

Signal Track Record

Did this asset's own Opportunity Scores precede outperformance? Each row is a past as-of date, scored point-in-time, with the realized benchmark-relative return that followed.

Data Provenance

Which signals on this page are real market data versus modeled by the deterministic engine. The terminal marks every source honestly.

Reference price
Simulated
Fair value basis
Simulated
Lowest ask (deal)
Simulated
Active listings
Simulated
Card image
Live
Recent sales
Simulated
Population data
Simulated
Liquidity metrics
Simulated
Liquidity analytics
Simulated
Price history
Simulated

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