PokéAlpha
DashboardAlpha ScannerBacktestAI AnalystHunt ListsScreenersAlertsPortfolioAlpha FeedPlans & BillingData SourcesSettings

Market intelligence for Pokémon collectors & investors.

PokéAlpha
Back to dashboard
Vaporeon — Hidden Fates — Rare Holo

Vaporeon

Simulated

Vaporeon · Hidden Fates · Rare Holo · 18

Character: Vaporeon

medium confidenceneutral6030d ▲2.6%
Estimated Fair Value
$29.97
Lowest listing $28.445.1% below
Search live listings:eBay activeeBay soldTCGplayer active
Bear Case
$26.00
Base Case
$29.97
Bull Case
$34.05

Price History

Dec 8Range $45.69 – $83.08Jun 5

Opportunity Score

41
  • Low active inventory+8 pts
  • Sales accelerating+7 pts
  • Reputable seller+6 pts
  • 5% below fair value+6 pts
  • High listing quality (near mint)+6 pts
  • High valuation confidence+5 pts
  • Strong demand (6 sales/mo)+2 pts
  • Price up 3% over 30 days+1 pts

Investment Thesis

neutral60

Vaporeon is currently modestly undervalued, with stable price momentum over the last 30 days (+2.6%). Estimated fair value is $30 against a lowest active listing of $28. Valuation confidence is medium based on 2-plus modeled comparable sales.

Neutral: flat 30-day price action with thin liquidity and stable graded supply.

Risk Indicators

  • Thin liquidity — few active listings, wider spreads likely
Active Listings
2
Sales / Month
6.0
Velocity Score
30/100
Illiquid
Sales Velocity 30d
+18.0%
Confidence
70/100

Grading ROI & Population Trend

Is it worth paying to grade this card? A transparent profit model from the real ungraded cost and the audited graded value, plus a read on graded-supply momentum. The cost and odds levers are modeled assumptions you can adjust — not market-price pins.

Grading ROI (model)
-48.3%
Grading not economical
unknown population

No population data reported for this asset.

Raw cost
$28.44
All-in cost
$57.44+ $25.00 fee · $4.00 ship
Graded value (per gem)
$114
Expected proceeds
$29.6930% gem → $34.13 · less 13% fee
Net profit / card
-$27.75
Breakeven graded value
$220value needed to break even

Adjust modeled assumptions

These are modeled estimates, not market-price pins.

  • Modeled gem-grade odds: 30% chance of PSA 10 (a modeled probability, not a market price). Non-gem outcomes are valued conservatively at $0.
  • Modeled grading-service fee: $25.00 per card, plus $4.00 shipping/insurance (modeled service costs, not market prices).
  • Modeled marketplace sell fee: 13.0% of graded proceeds (a modeled cost, not a market price).
  • Raw cost and graded value trace to the existing audited references/pins — this panel authors no new market-price value.

Liquidity & Comp Explorer

How easily does this asset trade? Days-to-sell, sell-through rate, the spread between the lowest ask and the recent sold center, and inventory depth — all modeled over this asset's recorded sales and active listings. Explore the sale distribution with a date-range filter and an outlier-trim toggle.

Liquidity & Comp Explorer

Simulated
Days to sell
0.8dmodeled median sale gap
Sell-through
23.0%over 90d window
Bid-ask spread
-3.0%lowest ask vs sold avg
Inventory depth
23active listings
Recent sold avg
$64.05mean over 90d
Lowest ask
$62.11cheapest active listing

Comp Explorer

Min
$52.53
Median
$62.68
Mean
$62.65
Max
$71.03

Showing 9 of 9 sales

These liquidity signals are modeled deterministically over this asset's existing recorded sales and active listings — they author no new market-price value. Days-to-sell, sell-through and the bid-ask spread are analytical reads over those comps, not a live order book.

How Fair Value Is Built

A transparent, weighted blend of market signals — no black boxes.

SignalDetailReferenceWeight
recent salesVolume-weighted average of recent sold comps28.6450%
listing inventoryAverage of active listing asking prices29.1325%
price trendRecent historical price trend projection29.325%
demand momentumAdjustment for sales velocity momentum (rising demand raises value)3.620%

Active Listings

PriceMarketplaceConditionSellerListedEndsLink
$62.11PWCCNear Mint7562d agoJun 7View
$62.22eBayNear Mint8461d agoJan 1View
$62.82PWCCNear Mint8967d agoJan 1View
$63.02PWCCNear Mint9357d agoJun 9View
$63.61TCGPlayerNear Mint9160d agoJan 1View
$63.99Facebook MarketplaceNear Mint6659d agoJan 1View
$65.43Facebook MarketplaceNear Mint7755d agoJun 9View
$69.63Facebook MarketplaceNear Mint9757d agoJan 1View
$70.09PWCCNear Mint8059d agoJun 9View
$70.54TCGPlayerNear Mint6268d agoJan 1View
$71.08TCGPlayerNear Mint7764d agoJan 1View
$71.43PWCCNear Mint7073d agoJun 9View

Recent Sales

PriceMarketplaceConditionSold
$71.03MercariNear Mint58d ago
$66.24TCGPlayerNear Mint59d ago
$69.04TCGPlayerNear Mint59d ago
$69.88PWCCNear Mint59d ago
$60.81PWCCNear Mint71d ago
$52.53eBayNear Mint73d ago
$58.84MercariNear Mint85d ago
$62.68eBayNear Mint94d ago
$52.80PWCCNear Mint96d ago

Signal Track Record

Did this asset's own Opportunity Scores precede outperformance? Each row is a past as-of date, scored point-in-time, with the realized benchmark-relative return that followed.

Data Provenance

Which signals on this page are real market data versus modeled by the deterministic engine. The terminal marks every source honestly.

Reference price
Simulated
Fair value basis
Simulated
Lowest ask (deal)
Simulated
Active listings
Simulated
Card image
Live
Recent sales
Simulated
Population data
Simulated
Liquidity metrics
Simulated
Liquidity analytics
Simulated
Price history
Simulated

Related Assets

Same character or set.

AssetFair ValueLowestDiscount30dAvailScore
Charizard GX (Shiny) — Hidden Fates — Secret Rare
Charizard GX (Shiny)Hidden FatesPSA 10Live-anchoredReal askas of Jun 4 · 56d oldsold-comp center2nd source (tcgcsv): $660 · sales-derived, ungradedView $550 · TCGPlayer
  • 13% below fair value+16 pts
  • Low active inventory+9 pts
  • High listing quality (graded)+6 pts
eBay activeeBay soldTCGplayer active
$1,624$1,40813.3%▲1.6%142
Eevee — Hidden Fates — Common
EeveeHidden FatesSimulated
  • 14% below fair value+16 pts
  • Reputable seller+7 pts
  • High listing quality (near mint)+6 pts
eBay activeeBay soldTCGplayer active
$323$27913.7%▼8.1%1834
Hidden Fates Elite Trainer Box — Hidden Fates — Sealed
Hidden Fates Elite Trainer BoxHidden FatesSimulated
  • Reputable seller+8 pts
  • Sales accelerating+8 pts
  • High valuation confidence+7 pts
eBay activeeBay soldTCGplayer active
$751$7154.9%▲1.5%1639
Vaporeon — Prismatic Evolutions — Rare
VaporeonPrismatic EvolutionsPSA 9Simulated
  • Sales accelerating+8 pts
  • Reputable seller+8 pts
  • High valuation confidence+7 pts
eBay activeeBay soldTCGplayer active
$143$1374.4%▲12.0%1741
Butterfree — Hidden Fates — Rare
ButterfreeHidden FatesSimulated
  • 10% below fair value+12 pts
  • High listing quality (near mint)+6 pts
  • Reputable seller+6 pts
eBay activeeBay soldTCGplayer active
$79.06$70.9210.3%▼0.1%2130
Arbok — Hidden Fates — Rare
ArbokHidden FatesBGS 9Simulated
  • Price up 65% over 30 days+8 pts
  • High valuation confidence+7 pts
  • Reputable seller+6 pts
eBay activeeBay soldTCGplayer active
$122$135-10.3%▲64.7%1334
Live data not configuredNumbers are backed by a real but dated snapshot. Enable real marketplace listings for live intelligence.How to enable