Price History
Opportunity Score
44- 9% below fair value+10 pts
- Population growth slowing+8 pts
- Reputable seller+7 pts
- High valuation confidence+6 pts
- High listing quality (graded)+6 pts
- Strong demand (19 sales/mo)+6 pts
Investment Thesis
bearish38Golbat (CGC 9.5) is currently modestly undervalued, with softening price momentum over the last 30 days (-12.0%). Estimated fair value is $91 against a lowest active listing of $83. Valuation confidence is high based on 20-plus modeled comparable sales.
Bearish: softening prices (-12.0% over 30d) amid healthy trading velocity and stable graded supply.
Risk Indicators
- Negative price momentum over the last 30 days
Grading ROI & Population Trend
Is it worth paying to grade this card? A transparent profit model from the real ungraded cost and the audited graded value, plus a read on graded-supply momentum. The cost and odds levers are modeled assumptions you can adjust — not market-price pins.
Population growth slowing to 1.5%/mo — supply tightening across 4530 graded.
4,530 graded · 47% gem · +1.5%/mo
- Raw cost
- $82.54
- All-in cost
- $112+ $25.00 fee · $4.00 ship
- Graded value (per gem)
- $90.51
- Expected proceeds
- $23.6230% gem → $27.15 · less 13% fee
- Net profit / card
- -$87.92
- Breakeven graded value
- $427value needed to break even
Adjust modeled assumptions
These are modeled estimates, not market-price pins.
- Modeled gem-grade odds: 30% chance of CGC 9.5 (a modeled probability, not a market price). Non-gem outcomes are valued conservatively at $0.
- Modeled grading-service fee: $25.00 per card, plus $4.00 shipping/insurance (modeled service costs, not market prices).
- Modeled marketplace sell fee: 13.0% of graded proceeds (a modeled cost, not a market price).
- Raw cost and graded value trace to the existing audited references/pins — this panel authors no new market-price value.
Liquidity & Comp Explorer
How easily does this asset trade? Days-to-sell, sell-through rate, the spread between the lowest ask and the recent sold center, and inventory depth — all modeled over this asset's recorded sales and active listings. Explore the sale distribution with a date-range filter and an outlier-trim toggle.
Liquidity & Comp Explorer
- Days to sell
- 1.1dmodeled median sale gap
- Sell-through
- 68.0%over 90d window
- Bid-ask spread
- -4.1%lowest ask vs sold avg
- Inventory depth
- 8active listings
- Recent sold avg
- $318mean over 90d
- Lowest ask
- $305cheapest active listing
Comp Explorer
- Min
- $286
- Median
- $312
- Mean
- $313
- Max
- $354
Showing 22 of 25 sales · 3 outliers trimmed
These liquidity signals are modeled deterministically over this asset's existing recorded sales and active listings — they author no new market-price value. Days-to-sell, sell-through and the bid-ask spread are analytical reads over those comps, not a live order book.
How Fair Value Is Built
A transparent, weighted blend of market signals — no black boxes.
| Signal | Detail | Reference | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|
| recent sales | Volume-weighted average of recent sold comps | 90.69 | 50% |
| listing inventory | Average of active listing asking prices | 96.79 | 25% |
| price trend | Recent historical price trend projection | 85.67 | 25% |
| population pressure | Adjustment for grading population growth (more supply lowers value) | 0.03 | 50% |
| demand momentum | Adjustment for sales velocity momentum (rising demand raises value) | -0.52 | 20% |
Active Listings
| Price | Marketplace | Condition | Seller | Listed | Ends | Link |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $305 | PWCC | Graded | 90 | 71d ago | Jun 8 | View |
| $353 | Mercari | Graded | 84 | 72d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $371 | eBay | Graded | 100 | 60d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $372 | Mercari | Graded | 61 | 69d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $377 | eBay | Graded | 78 | 75d ago | Jun 6 | View |
| $377 | TCGPlayer | Graded | 63 | 60d ago | Jun 10 | View |
| $393 | Facebook Marketplace | Graded | 73 | 61d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $394 | TCGPlayer | Graded | 96 | 58d ago | Jan 1 | View |
Recent Sales
| Price | Marketplace | Condition | Sold |
|---|---|---|---|
| $334 | TCGPlayer | Graded | 60d ago |
| $308 | PWCC | Graded | 61d ago |
| $316 | Mercari | Graded | 62d ago |
| $363 | Mercari | Graded | 67d ago |
| $363 | Mercari | Graded | 68d ago |
| $354 | PWCC | Graded | 70d ago |
| $329 | TCGPlayer | Graded | 73d ago |
| $266 | Facebook Marketplace | Graded | 76d ago |
| $297 | Mercari | Graded | 80d ago |
| $318 | Mercari | Graded | 80d ago |
| $326 | TCGPlayer | Graded | 80d ago |
| $303 | TCGPlayer | Graded | 81d ago |
Signal Track Record
Did this asset's own Opportunity Scores precede outperformance? Each row is a past as-of date, scored point-in-time, with the realized benchmark-relative return that followed.
Data Provenance
Which signals on this page are real market data versus modeled by the deterministic engine. The terminal marks every source honestly.
- Reference price
- Simulated
- Fair value basis
- Simulated
- Lowest ask (deal)
- Simulated
- Active listings
- Simulated
- Card image
- Live
- Recent sales
- Simulated
- Population data
- Simulated
- Liquidity metrics
- Simulated
- Liquidity analytics
- Simulated
- Price history
- Simulated
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