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Gengar Secret Rare

BGS 9Simulated

Gengar Secret Rare · HeartGold SoulSilver · Secret Rare · 86/123

Character: Gengar

high confidencebullish7530d 9.7%
Estimated Fair Value
$716
Lowest listing $6765.6% below
Bear Case
$622
Base Case
$716
Bull Case
$814

Price History

Dec 2Range $565$854May 30

Opportunity Score

35
  • High valuation confidence+7 pts
  • 6% below fair value+7 pts
  • Reputable seller+7 pts
  • High listing quality (graded)+6 pts
  • Price up 10% over 30 days+4 pts
  • Strong demand (10 sales/mo)+3 pts
  • Population growth slowing+3 pts

Investment Thesis

bullish75

Gengar Secret Rare (BGS 9) is currently modestly undervalued, with rising price momentum over the last 30 days (+9.7%). Estimated fair value is $716 against a lowest active listing of $676. Valuation confidence is high based on 17-plus recent comparable sales.

Bullish: rising prices (+9.7% over 30d) with thin liquidity and stable graded supply.

Active Listings
17
Sales / Month
9.5
Velocity Score
48/100
Moderate
Sales Velocity 30d
-4.0%
Total Graded
7,949
Gem Mint
3,751
Population Growth
+3.3%
Slowing

How Fair Value Is Built

A transparent, weighted blend of market signals — no black boxes.

SignalDetailReferenceWeight
recent salesVolume-weighted average of recent sold comps712.1750%
listing inventoryAverage of active listing asking prices762.4125%
price trendRecent historical price trend projection750.4725%
population pressureAdjustment for grading population growth (more supply lowers value)-1.6750%
demand momentumAdjustment for sales velocity momentum (rising demand raises value)-0.8120%

Active Listings

PriceMarketplaceConditionSellerListedEndsLink
$589Facebook MarketplaceGraded828d agoJan 1View
$596TCGPlayerGraded9516d agoJan 1View
$603PWCCGraded8116d agoJun 3View
$608MercariGraded8812d agoJun 1View
$628PWCCGraded9613d agoJan 1View
$661PWCCGraded9712d agoMay 31View
$669Facebook MarketplaceGraded714d agoJan 1View
$709PWCCGraded6418d agoJun 3View
$721eBayGraded9920d agoMay 31View
$722MercariGraded9013d agoJan 1View
$735Facebook MarketplaceGraded753d agoJan 1View
$785Facebook MarketplaceGraded846d agoJan 1View

Recent Sales

PriceMarketplaceConditionSold
$684eBayGraded2d ago
$638eBayGraded4d ago
$676PWCCGraded6d ago
$687MercariGraded7d ago
$674Facebook MarketplaceGraded11d ago
$608eBayGraded17d ago
$639PWCCGraded18d ago
$639PWCCGraded19d ago
$557MercariGraded31d ago
$671MercariGraded38d ago
$682MercariGraded40d ago
$642TCGPlayerGraded41d ago

Signal Track Record

Did this asset's own Opportunity Scores precede outperformance? Each row is a past as-of date, scored point-in-time, with the realized benchmark-relative return that followed.

Data Provenance

Which signals on this page are real market data versus modeled by the deterministic engine. The terminal marks every source honestly.

Reference price
Simulated
Card image
Simulated
Recent sales
Simulated
Population data
Simulated
Liquidity metrics
Simulated
Price history
Simulated

Same character or set.

AssetFair ValueLowestDiscount30dAvailScore
Umbreon PromoHeartGold SoulSilverSimulated
  • 16% below fair value+18 pts
  • Reputable seller+8 pts
  • High valuation confidence+7 pts
$393$33215.6%4.9%1546
Pikachu ex (Illustration Rare)HeartGold SoulSilverSimulated
  • 15% below fair value+17 pts
  • Reputable seller+7 pts
  • Low active inventory+6 pts
$485$41314.8%11.8%443
Umbreon Ultra RareHeartGold SoulSilverCGC 9Simulated
  • 15% below fair value+18 pts
  • Population growth slowing+8 pts
  • Reputable seller+7 pts
$640$54215.3%10.3%1344
Gengar V (Full Art)XY EvolutionsSimulated
  • 9% below fair value+11 pts
  • Sales accelerating+6 pts
  • High listing quality (near mint)+6 pts
$361$3289.3%4.8%2135
Gengar ex (Special Illustration)Hidden FatesSimulated
  • 16% below fair value+19 pts
  • High valuation confidence+7 pts
  • High listing quality (near mint)+6 pts
$328$27516.1%4.5%2247
Gengar Secret RareHidden FatesCGC 9.5Simulated
  • 7% below fair value+8 pts
  • High valuation confidence+6 pts
  • Price up 15% over 30 days+6 pts
$549$5097.2%15.2%743