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Gengar Secret Rare

CGC 9.5Simulated

Gengar Secret Rare · Hidden Fates · Secret Rare · 101/163

Character: Gengar

medium confidenceneutral4630d 1.6%
Estimated Fair Value
$505
Lowest listing $45110.7% below
Bear Case
$437
Base Case
$505
Bull Case
$571

Price History

Dec 2Range $334$634May 30

Opportunity Score

45
  • 11% below fair value+13 pts
  • Sales accelerating+10 pts
  • Reputable seller+7 pts
  • High listing quality (graded)+6 pts
  • High valuation confidence+5 pts
  • Population growth slowing+4 pts
  • Strong demand (4 sales/mo)+1 pts

Investment Thesis

neutral46

Gengar Secret Rare (CGC 9.5) is currently modestly undervalued, with stable price momentum over the last 30 days (-1.6%). Estimated fair value is $505 against a lowest active listing of $451. Valuation confidence is medium based on 17-plus recent comparable sales.

Neutral: flat 30-day price action with thin liquidity and stable graded supply.

Active Listings
17
Sales / Month
4.0
Velocity Score
20/100
Illiquid
Sales Velocity 30d
+24.5%
Total Graded
1,593
Gem Mint
584
Population Growth
+2.5%
Slowing

How Fair Value Is Built

A transparent, weighted blend of market signals — no black boxes.

SignalDetailReferenceWeight
recent salesVolume-weighted average of recent sold comps485.2650%
listing inventoryAverage of active listing asking prices530.6625%
price trendRecent historical price trend projection448.225%
population pressureAdjustment for grading population growth (more supply lowers value)-1.2750%
demand momentumAdjustment for sales velocity momentum (rising demand raises value)4.920%

Active Listings

PriceMarketplaceConditionSellerListedEndsLink
$418TCGPlayerGraded7221d agoMay 31View
$424PWCCGraded9822h agoJan 1View
$429MercariGraded7320d agoJan 1View
$432MercariGraded6511d agoJan 1View
$433MercariGraded6814d agoJun 2View
$441PWCCGraded8215d agoJan 1View
$442TCGPlayerGraded8413d agoJun 1View
$444Facebook MarketplaceGraded827d agoJan 1View
$457PWCCGraded9210d agoJun 3View
$472MercariGraded7118d agoMay 31View
$472TCGPlayerGraded646d agoJan 1View
$475PWCCGraded7317d agoJan 1View

Recent Sales

PriceMarketplaceConditionSold
$454MercariGraded17d ago
$520eBayGraded19d ago
$474Facebook MarketplaceGraded24d ago
$444PWCCGraded24d ago
$482MercariGraded29d ago
$453TCGPlayerGraded31d ago

Signal Track Record

Did this asset's own Opportunity Scores precede outperformance? Each row is a past as-of date, scored point-in-time, with the realized benchmark-relative return that followed.

Data Provenance

Which signals on this page are real market data versus modeled by the deterministic engine. The terminal marks every source honestly.

Reference price
Simulated
Card image
Simulated
Recent sales
Simulated
Population data
Simulated
Liquidity metrics
Simulated
Price history
Simulated

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