Price History
Opportunity Score
58- 17% below fair value+20 pts
- Sales accelerating+9 pts
- Reputable seller+7 pts
- High valuation confidence+7 pts
- High listing quality (near mint)+6 pts
- Strong demand (14 sales/mo)+4 pts
- Price up 10% over 30 days+4 pts
Investment Thesis
bullish82Gambler is currently trading at a meaningful discount to fair value, with rising price momentum over the last 30 days (+9.7%). Estimated fair value is $80 against a lowest active listing of $66. Valuation confidence is high based on 14-plus modeled comparable sales.
Bullish: rising prices (+9.7% over 30d) with healthy trading velocity and stable graded supply.
Grading ROI & Population Trend
Is it worth paying to grade this card? A transparent profit model from the real ungraded cost and the audited graded value, plus a read on graded-supply momentum. The cost and odds levers are modeled assumptions you can adjust — not market-price pins.
No population data reported for this asset.
- Raw cost
- $65.91
- All-in cost
- $94.91+ $25.00 fee · $4.00 ship
- Graded value (per gem)
- $264
- Expected proceeds
- $68.8130% gem → $79.09 · less 13% fee
- Net profit / card
- -$26.10
- Breakeven graded value
- $364value needed to break even
Adjust modeled assumptions
These are modeled estimates, not market-price pins.
- Modeled gem-grade odds: 30% chance of PSA 10 (a modeled probability, not a market price). Non-gem outcomes are valued conservatively at $0.
- Modeled grading-service fee: $25.00 per card, plus $4.00 shipping/insurance (modeled service costs, not market prices).
- Modeled marketplace sell fee: 13.0% of graded proceeds (a modeled cost, not a market price).
- Raw cost and graded value trace to the existing audited references/pins — this panel authors no new market-price value.
Liquidity & Comp Explorer
How easily does this asset trade? Days-to-sell, sell-through rate, the spread between the lowest ask and the recent sold center, and inventory depth — all modeled over this asset's recorded sales and active listings. Explore the sale distribution with a date-range filter and an outlier-trim toggle.
Liquidity & Comp Explorer
- Days to sell
- 1.1dmodeled median sale gap
- Sell-through
- 68.0%over 90d window
- Bid-ask spread
- -5.3%lowest ask vs sold avg
- Inventory depth
- 11active listings
- Recent sold avg
- $157mean over 90d
- Lowest ask
- $148cheapest active listing
Comp Explorer
- Min
- $127
- Median
- $160
- Mean
- $157
- Max
- $180
Showing 33 of 33 sales
These liquidity signals are modeled deterministically over this asset's existing recorded sales and active listings — they author no new market-price value. Days-to-sell, sell-through and the bid-ask spread are analytical reads over those comps, not a live order book.
How Fair Value Is Built
A transparent, weighted blend of market signals — no black boxes.
| Signal | Detail | Reference | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|
| recent sales | Volume-weighted average of recent sold comps | 74.7 | 50% |
| listing inventory | Average of active listing asking prices | 75.58 | 25% |
| price trend | Recent historical price trend projection | 79.64 | 25% |
| demand momentum | Adjustment for sales velocity momentum (rising demand raises value) | 4.66 | 20% |
Active Listings
| Price | Marketplace | Condition | Seller | Listed | Ends | Link |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $148 | TCGPlayer | Near Mint | 94 | 65d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $152 | Facebook Marketplace | Near Mint | 92 | 72d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $152 | PWCC | Near Mint | 96 | 57d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $166 | TCGPlayer | Near Mint | 73 | 62d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $168 | Mercari | Near Mint | 69 | 72d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $174 | eBay | Near Mint | 84 | 69d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $183 | TCGPlayer | Near Mint | 65 | 61d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $185 | Mercari | Near Mint | 71 | 72d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $186 | Facebook Marketplace | Near Mint | 65 | 71d ago | Jun 7 | View |
| $189 | Facebook Marketplace | Near Mint | 89 | 64d ago | Jun 7 | View |
| $189 | PWCC | Near Mint | 90 | 68d ago | Jan 1 | View |
Recent Sales
| Price | Marketplace | Condition | Sold |
|---|---|---|---|
| $180 | eBay | Near Mint | 57d ago |
| $166 | Mercari | Near Mint | 57d ago |
| $160 | PWCC | Near Mint | 57d ago |
| $178 | Mercari | Near Mint | 60d ago |
| $176 | TCGPlayer | Near Mint | 61d ago |
| $146 | Facebook Marketplace | Near Mint | 62d ago |
| $150 | eBay | Near Mint | 63d ago |
| $154 | Facebook Marketplace | Near Mint | 68d ago |
| $160 | TCGPlayer | Near Mint | 69d ago |
| $165 | Facebook Marketplace | Near Mint | 69d ago |
| $166 | Facebook Marketplace | Near Mint | 69d ago |
| $164 | Facebook Marketplace | Near Mint | 72d ago |
Signal Track Record
Did this asset's own Opportunity Scores precede outperformance? Each row is a past as-of date, scored point-in-time, with the realized benchmark-relative return that followed.
Data Provenance
Which signals on this page are real market data versus modeled by the deterministic engine. The terminal marks every source honestly.
- Reference price
- Simulated
- Fair value basis
- Simulated
- Lowest ask (deal)
- Simulated
- Active listings
- Simulated
- Card image
- Live
- Recent sales
- Simulated
- Population data
- Simulated
- Liquidity metrics
- Simulated
- Liquidity analytics
- Simulated
- Price history
- Simulated
Related Assets
Same character or set.
| Asset | Fair Value | Lowest | Discount | 30d | Avail | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 GengarFossilPSA 9.5Simulated
| $19,168 | $16,797 | 12.4% | 3.1% | 22 | 42 |
 GengarFossilSimulated
| $10,953 | $10,123 | 7.6% | 5.8% | 13 | 34 |
| $1,550 | $1,374 | 11.3% | 0.3% | 4 | 40 |
 DragoniteFossilSimulated
| $1,627 | $1,473 | 9.4% | 18.7% | 7 | 52 |
 DragoniteFossilBGS 9.5Simulated
| $1,001 | $971 | 3.1% | 22.5% | 17 | 34 |
 | $285 | $255 | 10.5% | 1.0% | 18 | 45 |