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Cubone — Hidden Fates — Common

Cubone

Simulated

Cubone · Hidden Fates · Common · 37

Character: Cubone

high confidencebearish3430d ▼13.7%
Estimated Fair Value
$37.34
Lowest listing $34.368.0% below
Search live listings:eBay activeeBay soldTCGplayer active
Bear Case
$31.74
Base Case
$37.34
Bull Case
$42.68

Price History

Dec 8Range $63.58 – $101Jun 5

Opportunity Score

33
  • 8% below fair value+9 pts
  • High valuation confidence+7 pts
  • High listing quality (near mint)+6 pts
  • Strong demand (19 sales/mo)+6 pts
  • Reputable seller+5 pts

Investment Thesis

bearish34

Cubone is currently modestly undervalued, with softening price momentum over the last 30 days (-13.7%). Estimated fair value is $37 against a lowest active listing of $34. Valuation confidence is high based on 20-plus modeled comparable sales.

Bearish: softening prices (-13.7% over 30d) amid healthy trading velocity and stable graded supply.

Risk Indicators

  • Negative price momentum over the last 30 days
Active Listings
20
Sales / Month
19.0
Velocity Score
95/100
Fast-moving
Sales Velocity 30d
-11.5%
Confidence
97/100

Grading ROI & Population Trend

Is it worth paying to grade this card? A transparent profit model from the real ungraded cost and the audited graded value, plus a read on graded-supply momentum. The cost and odds levers are modeled assumptions you can adjust — not market-price pins.

Grading ROI (model)
-43.4%
Grading not economical
unknown population

No population data reported for this asset.

Raw cost
$34.36
All-in cost
$63.36+ $25.00 fee · $4.00 ship
Graded value (per gem)
$137
Expected proceeds
$35.8730% gem → $41.23 · less 13% fee
Net profit / card
-$27.49
Breakeven graded value
$243value needed to break even

Adjust modeled assumptions

These are modeled estimates, not market-price pins.

  • Modeled gem-grade odds: 30% chance of PSA 10 (a modeled probability, not a market price). Non-gem outcomes are valued conservatively at $0.
  • Modeled grading-service fee: $25.00 per card, plus $4.00 shipping/insurance (modeled service costs, not market prices).
  • Modeled marketplace sell fee: 13.0% of graded proceeds (a modeled cost, not a market price).
  • Raw cost and graded value trace to the existing audited references/pins — this panel authors no new market-price value.

Liquidity & Comp Explorer

How easily does this asset trade? Days-to-sell, sell-through rate, the spread between the lowest ask and the recent sold center, and inventory depth — all modeled over this asset's recorded sales and active listings. Explore the sale distribution with a date-range filter and an outlier-trim toggle.

Liquidity & Comp Explorer

Simulated
Days to sell
0.9dmodeled median sale gap
Sell-through
77.0%over 90d window
Bid-ask spread
-31.7%lowest ask vs sold avg
Inventory depth
7active listings
Recent sold avg
$84.86mean over 90d
Lowest ask
$57.93cheapest active listing

Comp Explorer

Min
$74.40
Median
$90.47
Mean
$88.86
Max
$102

Showing 33 of 35 sales · 2 outliers trimmed

These liquidity signals are modeled deterministically over this asset's existing recorded sales and active listings — they author no new market-price value. Days-to-sell, sell-through and the bid-ask spread are analytical reads over those comps, not a live order book.

How Fair Value Is Built

A transparent, weighted blend of market signals — no black boxes.

SignalDetailReferenceWeight
recent salesVolume-weighted average of recent sold comps39.2150%
listing inventoryAverage of active listing asking prices38.2125%
price trendRecent historical price trend projection36.2725%
demand momentumAdjustment for sales velocity momentum (rising demand raises value)-2.3120%

Active Listings

PriceMarketplaceConditionSellerListedEndsLink
$57.93MercariNear Mint8870d agoJan 1View
$58.85MercariNear Mint9568d agoJan 1View
$60.19TCGPlayerNear Mint8959d agoJan 1View
$63.12eBayNear Mint7962d agoJan 1View
$69.57eBayNear Mint8360d agoJan 1View
$72.36TCGPlayerNear Mint9358d agoJan 1View
$72.45eBayNear Mint7073d agoJan 1View

Recent Sales

PriceMarketplaceConditionSold
$59.13PWCCNear Mint54d ago
$61.85eBayNear Mint54d ago
$78.57TCGPlayerNear Mint58d ago
$74.40TCGPlayerNear Mint63d ago
$84.13PWCCNear Mint66d ago
$81.53eBayNear Mint68d ago
$88.29TCGPlayerNear Mint69d ago
$91.37TCGPlayerNear Mint71d ago
$92.65PWCCNear Mint72d ago
$91.23MercariNear Mint74d ago
$85.39MercariNear Mint74d ago
$74.79TCGPlayerNear Mint75d ago

Signal Track Record

Did this asset's own Opportunity Scores precede outperformance? Each row is a past as-of date, scored point-in-time, with the realized benchmark-relative return that followed.

Data Provenance

Which signals on this page are real market data versus modeled by the deterministic engine. The terminal marks every source honestly.

Reference price
Simulated
Fair value basis
Simulated
Lowest ask (deal)
Simulated
Active listings
Simulated
Card image
Live
Recent sales
Simulated
Population data
Simulated
Liquidity metrics
Simulated
Liquidity analytics
Simulated
Price history
Simulated

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