Price History
Opportunity Score
43- Sales accelerating+10 pts
- Low active inventory+8 pts
- High listing quality (near mint)+6 pts
- Reputable seller+6 pts
- High valuation confidence+6 pts
- Strong demand (18 sales/mo)+5 pts
- Price up 5% over 30 days+2 pts
Investment Thesis
bullish74Flareon is currently fairly valued, with stable price momentum over the last 30 days (+4.8%). Estimated fair value is $85 against a lowest active listing of $87. Valuation confidence is high based on 2-plus modeled comparable sales.
Bullish: flat 30-day price action with healthy trading velocity and stable graded supply.
Risk Indicators
- Thin liquidity — few active listings, wider spreads likely
Grading ROI & Population Trend
Is it worth paying to grade this card? A transparent profit model from the real ungraded cost and the audited graded value, plus a read on graded-supply momentum. The cost and odds levers are modeled assumptions you can adjust — not market-price pins.
No population data reported for this asset.
- Raw cost
- $86.55
- All-in cost
- $116+ $25.00 fee · $4.00 ship
- Graded value (per gem)
- $346
- Expected proceeds
- $90.3630% gem → $104 · less 13% fee
- Net profit / card
- -$25.19
- Breakeven graded value
- $443value needed to break even
Adjust modeled assumptions
These are modeled estimates, not market-price pins.
- Modeled gem-grade odds: 30% chance of PSA 10 (a modeled probability, not a market price). Non-gem outcomes are valued conservatively at $0.
- Modeled grading-service fee: $25.00 per card, plus $4.00 shipping/insurance (modeled service costs, not market prices).
- Modeled marketplace sell fee: 13.0% of graded proceeds (a modeled cost, not a market price).
- Raw cost and graded value trace to the existing audited references/pins — this panel authors no new market-price value.
Liquidity & Comp Explorer
How easily does this asset trade? Days-to-sell, sell-through rate, the spread between the lowest ask and the recent sold center, and inventory depth — all modeled over this asset's recorded sales and active listings. Explore the sale distribution with a date-range filter and an outlier-trim toggle.
Liquidity & Comp Explorer
- Days to sell
- 1.0dmodeled median sale gap
- Sell-through
- 61.0%over 90d window
- Bid-ask spread
- +4.3%lowest ask vs sold avg
- Inventory depth
- 13active listings
- Recent sold avg
- $168mean over 90d
- Lowest ask
- $175cheapest active listing
Comp Explorer
- Min
- $124
- Median
- $152
- Mean
- $153
- Max
- $200
Showing 29 of 32 sales · 3 outliers trimmed
These liquidity signals are modeled deterministically over this asset's existing recorded sales and active listings — they author no new market-price value. Days-to-sell, sell-through and the bid-ask spread are analytical reads over those comps, not a live order book.
How Fair Value Is Built
A transparent, weighted blend of market signals — no black boxes.
| Signal | Detail | Reference | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|
| recent sales | Volume-weighted average of recent sold comps | 75.09 | 50% |
| listing inventory | Average of active listing asking prices | 86.56 | 25% |
| price trend | Recent historical price trend projection | 87.59 | 25% |
| demand momentum | Adjustment for sales velocity momentum (rising demand raises value) | 4.97 | 20% |
Active Listings
| Price | Marketplace | Condition | Seller | Listed | Ends | Link |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $175 | eBay | Near Mint | 64 | 69d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $179 | TCGPlayer | Near Mint | 94 | 55d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $180 | PWCC | Near Mint | 98 | 57d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $182 | PWCC | Near Mint | 83 | 74d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $183 | PWCC | Near Mint | 86 | 66d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $192 | Facebook Marketplace | Near Mint | 97 | 58d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $201 | Mercari | Near Mint | 78 | 57d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $208 | Mercari | Near Mint | 93 | 57d ago | Jun 9 | View |
| $209 | TCGPlayer | Near Mint | 64 | 70d ago | Jun 8 | View |
| $210 | Facebook Marketplace | Near Mint | 72 | 65d ago | Jun 9 | View |
| $215 | Mercari | Near Mint | 92 | 72d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $224 | eBay | Near Mint | 93 | 55d ago | Jan 1 | View |
Recent Sales
| Price | Marketplace | Condition | Sold |
|---|---|---|---|
| $213 | Facebook Marketplace | Near Mint | 55d ago |
| $200 | Facebook Marketplace | Near Mint | 55d ago |
| $198 | eBay | Near Mint | 56d ago |
| $211 | Mercari | Near Mint | 57d ago |
| $206 | Mercari | Near Mint | 57d ago |
| $172 | Facebook Marketplace | Near Mint | 59d ago |
| $163 | Facebook Marketplace | Near Mint | 61d ago |
| $164 | Mercari | Near Mint | 63d ago |
| $159 | Facebook Marketplace | Near Mint | 68d ago |
| $152 | PWCC | Near Mint | 69d ago |
| $156 | eBay | Near Mint | 70d ago |
| $148 | Facebook Marketplace | Near Mint | 70d ago |
Signal Track Record
Did this asset's own Opportunity Scores precede outperformance? Each row is a past as-of date, scored point-in-time, with the realized benchmark-relative return that followed.
Data Provenance
Which signals on this page are real market data versus modeled by the deterministic engine. The terminal marks every source honestly.
- Reference price
- Simulated
- Fair value basis
- Simulated
- Lowest ask (deal)
- Simulated
- Active listings
- Simulated
- Card image
- Live
- Recent sales
- Simulated
- Population data
- Simulated
- Liquidity metrics
- Simulated
- Liquidity analytics
- Simulated
- Price history
- Simulated
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