Price History
Opportunity Score
36- Low active inventory+8 pts
- Reputable seller+6 pts
- High listing quality (graded)+6 pts
- High valuation confidence+6 pts
- Strong demand (11 sales/mo)+3 pts
- Population growth slowing+3 pts
- Price up 5% over 30 days+2 pts
- Sales accelerating+2 pts
Investment Thesis
bullish65Meowth (CGC 10) is currently trading above fair value, with stable price momentum over the last 30 days (+4.8%). Estimated fair value is $523 against a lowest active listing of $580. Valuation confidence is high based on 2-plus modeled comparable sales.
Bullish: flat 30-day price action with healthy trading velocity and stable graded supply.
Risk Indicators
- Thin liquidity — few active listings, wider spreads likely
Grading ROI & Population Trend
Is it worth paying to grade this card? A transparent profit model from the real ungraded cost and the audited graded value, plus a read on graded-supply momentum. The cost and odds levers are modeled assumptions you can adjust — not market-price pins.
Population growth slowing to 1.0%/mo — supply tightening across 1222 graded.
1,222 graded · 52% gem · +1.0%/mo
- Raw cost
- $580
- All-in cost
- $609+ $25.00 fee · $4.00 ship
- Graded value (per gem)
- $523
- Expected proceeds
- $13630% gem → $157 · less 13% fee
- Net profit / card
- -$473.01
- Breakeven graded value
- $2,335value needed to break even
Adjust modeled assumptions
These are modeled estimates, not market-price pins.
- Modeled gem-grade odds: 30% chance of CGC 10 (a modeled probability, not a market price). Non-gem outcomes are valued conservatively at $0.
- Modeled grading-service fee: $25.00 per card, plus $4.00 shipping/insurance (modeled service costs, not market prices).
- Modeled marketplace sell fee: 13.0% of graded proceeds (a modeled cost, not a market price).
- Raw cost and graded value trace to the existing audited references/pins — this panel authors no new market-price value.
Liquidity & Comp Explorer
How easily does this asset trade? Days-to-sell, sell-through rate, the spread between the lowest ask and the recent sold center, and inventory depth — all modeled over this asset's recorded sales and active listings. Explore the sale distribution with a date-range filter and an outlier-trim toggle.
Liquidity & Comp Explorer
- Days to sell
- 1.1dmodeled median sale gap
- Sell-through
- 60.0%over 90d window
- Bid-ask spread
- +9.3%lowest ask vs sold avg
- Inventory depth
- 12active listings
- Recent sold avg
- $486mean over 90d
- Lowest ask
- $531cheapest active listing
Comp Explorer
- Min
- $382
- Median
- $477
- Mean
- $486
- Max
- $610
Showing 29 of 29 sales
These liquidity signals are modeled deterministically over this asset's existing recorded sales and active listings — they author no new market-price value. Days-to-sell, sell-through and the bid-ask spread are analytical reads over those comps, not a live order book.
How Fair Value Is Built
A transparent, weighted blend of market signals — no black boxes.
| Signal | Detail | Reference | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|
| recent sales | Volume-weighted average of recent sold comps | 499.87 | 50% |
| listing inventory | Average of active listing asking prices | 587.93 | 25% |
| price trend | Recent historical price trend projection | 519.81 | 25% |
| population pressure | Adjustment for grading population growth (more supply lowers value) | -1.59 | 50% |
| demand momentum | Adjustment for sales velocity momentum (rising demand raises value) | 0.85 | 20% |
Active Listings
| Price | Marketplace | Condition | Seller | Listed | Ends | Link |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $531 | Facebook Marketplace | Graded | 98 | 57d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $532 | PWCC | Graded | 79 | 74d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $545 | TCGPlayer | Graded | 61 | 64d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $579 | Facebook Marketplace | Graded | 68 | 60d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $589 | Facebook Marketplace | Graded | 74 | 61d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $602 | PWCC | Graded | 71 | 73d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $617 | Facebook Marketplace | Graded | 73 | 59d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $658 | eBay | Graded | 69 | 55d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $660 | eBay | Graded | 65 | 69d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $667 | PWCC | Graded | 95 | 68d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $677 | PWCC | Graded | 78 | 70d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $684 | PWCC | Graded | 70 | 65d ago | Jan 1 | View |
Recent Sales
| Price | Marketplace | Condition | Sold |
|---|---|---|---|
| $610 | Mercari | Graded | 56d ago |
| $579 | Facebook Marketplace | Graded | 57d ago |
| $533 | Facebook Marketplace | Graded | 59d ago |
| $584 | Mercari | Graded | 65d ago |
| $606 | Facebook Marketplace | Graded | 66d ago |
| $486 | Facebook Marketplace | Graded | 70d ago |
| $551 | TCGPlayer | Graded | 71d ago |
| $477 | TCGPlayer | Graded | 75d ago |
| $437 | PWCC | Graded | 76d ago |
| $428 | TCGPlayer | Graded | 78d ago |
| $398 | PWCC | Graded | 79d ago |
| $384 | PWCC | Graded | 80d ago |
Signal Track Record
Did this asset's own Opportunity Scores precede outperformance? Each row is a past as-of date, scored point-in-time, with the realized benchmark-relative return that followed.
Data Provenance
Which signals on this page are real market data versus modeled by the deterministic engine. The terminal marks every source honestly.
- Reference price
- Simulated
- Fair value basis
- Simulated
- Lowest ask (deal)
- Simulated
- Active listings
- Simulated
- Card image
- Live
- Recent sales
- Simulated
- Population data
- Simulated
- Liquidity metrics
- Simulated
- Liquidity analytics
- Simulated
- Price history
- Simulated
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