Price History
Opportunity Score
36- 13% below fair value+15 pts
- Reputable seller+7 pts
- High listing quality (graded)+6 pts
- High valuation confidence+4 pts
- Price up 9% over 30 days+3 pts
Investment Thesis
bullish65Meowth (CGC 9) is currently modestly undervalued, with rising price momentum over the last 30 days (+8.6%). Estimated fair value is $42 against a lowest active listing of $37. Valuation confidence is medium based on 21-plus modeled comparable sales.
Bullish: rising prices (+8.6% over 30d) with thin liquidity and rising graded population (5.2%/mo).
Risk Indicators
- Rising graded population may pressure prices
Grading ROI & Population Trend
Is it worth paying to grade this card? A transparent profit model from the real ungraded cost and the audited graded value, plus a read on graded-supply momentum. The cost and odds levers are modeled assumptions you can adjust — not market-price pins.
Population growing 2.4%/mo — steady supply across 2273 graded.
2,273 graded · 35% gem · +2.4%/mo
- Raw cost
- $36.72
- All-in cost
- $65.72+ $25.00 fee · $4.00 ship
- Graded value (per gem)
- $42.16
- Expected proceeds
- $11.0030% gem → $12.65 · less 13% fee
- Net profit / card
- -$54.72
- Breakeven graded value
- $252value needed to break even
Adjust modeled assumptions
These are modeled estimates, not market-price pins.
- Modeled gem-grade odds: 30% chance of CGC 9 (a modeled probability, not a market price). Non-gem outcomes are valued conservatively at $0.
- Modeled grading-service fee: $25.00 per card, plus $4.00 shipping/insurance (modeled service costs, not market prices).
- Modeled marketplace sell fee: 13.0% of graded proceeds (a modeled cost, not a market price).
- Raw cost and graded value trace to the existing audited references/pins — this panel authors no new market-price value.
Liquidity & Comp Explorer
How easily does this asset trade? Days-to-sell, sell-through rate, the spread between the lowest ask and the recent sold center, and inventory depth — all modeled over this asset's recorded sales and active listings. Explore the sale distribution with a date-range filter and an outlier-trim toggle.
Liquidity & Comp Explorer
- Days to sell
- 3.0dmodeled median sale gap
- Sell-through
- 19.0%over 90d window
- Bid-ask spread
- +25.9%lowest ask vs sold avg
- Inventory depth
- 21active listings
- Recent sold avg
- $209mean over 90d
- Lowest ask
- $263cheapest active listing
Comp Explorer
- Min
- $176
- Median
- $248
- Mean
- $244
- Max
- $310
Showing 14 of 15 sales · 1 outlier trimmed
These liquidity signals are modeled deterministically over this asset's existing recorded sales and active listings — they author no new market-price value. Days-to-sell, sell-through and the bid-ask spread are analytical reads over those comps, not a live order book.
How Fair Value Is Built
A transparent, weighted blend of market signals — no black boxes.
| Signal | Detail | Reference | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|
| recent sales | Volume-weighted average of recent sold comps | 43.4 | 50% |
| listing inventory | Average of active listing asking prices | 42.53 | 25% |
| price trend | Recent historical price trend projection | 45.64 | 25% |
| population pressure | Adjustment for grading population growth (more supply lowers value) | -2.62 | 50% |
| demand momentum | Adjustment for sales velocity momentum (rising demand raises value) | -1.02 | 20% |
Active Listings
| Price | Marketplace | Condition | Seller | Listed | Ends | Link |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $263 | PWCC | Graded | 69 | 67d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $266 | PWCC | Graded | 96 | 60d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $274 | Facebook Marketplace | Graded | 64 | 65d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $275 | Facebook Marketplace | Graded | 100 | 71d ago | Jun 10 | View |
| $282 | PWCC | Graded | 74 | 72d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $284 | PWCC | Graded | 67 | 67d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $287 | Mercari | Graded | 100 | 71d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $291 | eBay | Graded | 93 | 64d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $300 | Mercari | Graded | 78 | 74d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $301 | PWCC | Graded | 67 | 62d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $304 | eBay | Graded | 83 | 67d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $304 | Facebook Marketplace | Graded | 70 | 59d ago | Jan 1 | View |
Recent Sales
| Price | Marketplace | Condition | Sold |
|---|---|---|---|
| $263 | Mercari | Graded | 60d ago |
| $231 | Mercari | Graded | 74d ago |
| $176 | Mercari | Graded | 78d ago |
| $191 | PWCC | Graded | 79d ago |
| $184 | Mercari | Graded | 80d ago |
| $227 | Facebook Marketplace | Graded | 92d ago |
| $242 | eBay | Graded | 95d ago |
| $236 | TCGPlayer | Graded | 96d ago |
| $254 | eBay | Graded | 102d ago |
| $275 | PWCC | Graded | 104d ago |
| $310 | TCGPlayer | Graded | 104d ago |
| $336 | Mercari | Graded | 110d ago |
Signal Track Record
Did this asset's own Opportunity Scores precede outperformance? Each row is a past as-of date, scored point-in-time, with the realized benchmark-relative return that followed.
Data Provenance
Which signals on this page are real market data versus modeled by the deterministic engine. The terminal marks every source honestly.
- Reference price
- Simulated
- Fair value basis
- Simulated
- Lowest ask (deal)
- Simulated
- Active listings
- Simulated
- Card image
- Live
- Recent sales
- Simulated
- Population data
- Simulated
- Liquidity metrics
- Simulated
- Liquidity analytics
- Simulated
- Price history
- Simulated
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