Kangaskhan
CGC 9.5SimulatedKangaskhan · Jungle · Rare Holo · 5
Character: Kangaskhan
Price History
Opportunity Score
54- 17% below fair value+20 pts
- Reputable seller+8 pts
- Low active inventory+6 pts
- High listing quality (graded)+6 pts
- High valuation confidence+6 pts
- Strong demand (15 sales/mo)+5 pts
- Sales accelerating+3 pts
Investment Thesis
bearish19Kangaskhan (CGC 9.5) is currently trading at a meaningful discount to fair value, with softening price momentum over the last 30 days (-16.4%). Estimated fair value is $41 against a lowest active listing of $34. Valuation confidence is high based on 4-plus modeled comparable sales.
Bearish: softening prices (-16.4% over 30d) amid healthy trading velocity and rising graded population (5.7%/mo).
Risk Indicators
- Rising graded population may pressure prices
- Negative price momentum over the last 30 days
Grading ROI & Population Trend
Is it worth paying to grade this card? A transparent profit model from the real ungraded cost and the audited graded value, plus a read on graded-supply momentum. The cost and odds levers are modeled assumptions you can adjust — not market-price pins.
Population growth slowing to -0.4%/mo — supply tightening across 1407 graded.
1,407 graded · 22% gem · -0.4%/mo
- Raw cost
- $33.99
- All-in cost
- $62.99+ $25.00 fee · $4.00 ship
- Graded value (per gem)
- $41.00
- Expected proceeds
- $10.7030% gem → $12.30 · less 13% fee
- Net profit / card
- -$52.29
- Breakeven graded value
- $241value needed to break even
Adjust modeled assumptions
These are modeled estimates, not market-price pins.
- Modeled gem-grade odds: 30% chance of CGC 9.5 (a modeled probability, not a market price). Non-gem outcomes are valued conservatively at $0.
- Modeled grading-service fee: $25.00 per card, plus $4.00 shipping/insurance (modeled service costs, not market prices).
- Modeled marketplace sell fee: 13.0% of graded proceeds (a modeled cost, not a market price).
- Raw cost and graded value trace to the existing audited references/pins — this panel authors no new market-price value.
Liquidity & Comp Explorer
How easily does this asset trade? Days-to-sell, sell-through rate, the spread between the lowest ask and the recent sold center, and inventory depth — all modeled over this asset's recorded sales and active listings. Explore the sale distribution with a date-range filter and an outlier-trim toggle.
Liquidity & Comp Explorer
- Days to sell
- 1.1dmodeled median sale gap
- Sell-through
- 35.0%over 90d window
- Bid-ask spread
- -9.5%lowest ask vs sold avg
- Inventory depth
- 20active listings
- Recent sold avg
- $190mean over 90d
- Lowest ask
- $172cheapest active listing
Comp Explorer
- Min
- $155
- Median
- $188
- Mean
- $188
- Max
- $218
Showing 25 of 25 sales
These liquidity signals are modeled deterministically over this asset's existing recorded sales and active listings — they author no new market-price value. Days-to-sell, sell-through and the bid-ask spread are analytical reads over those comps, not a live order book.
How Fair Value Is Built
A transparent, weighted blend of market signals — no black boxes.
| Signal | Detail | Reference | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|
| recent sales | Volume-weighted average of recent sold comps | 43.71 | 50% |
| listing inventory | Average of active listing asking prices | 36.63 | 25% |
| price trend | Recent historical price trend projection | 42 | 25% |
| population pressure | Adjustment for grading population growth (more supply lowers value) | -2.84 | 50% |
| demand momentum | Adjustment for sales velocity momentum (rising demand raises value) | 1.65 | 20% |
Active Listings
| Price | Marketplace | Condition | Seller | Listed | Ends | Link |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $172 | TCGPlayer | Graded | 97 | 67d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $173 | PWCC | Graded | 61 | 71d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $177 | Facebook Marketplace | Graded | 95 | 72d ago | Jun 10 | View |
| $177 | PWCC | Graded | 79 | 55d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $185 | Mercari | Graded | 98 | 71d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $192 | eBay | Graded | 91 | 62d ago | Jun 7 | View |
| $196 | TCGPlayer | Graded | 84 | 58d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $197 | Mercari | Graded | 75 | 64d ago | Jun 6 | View |
| $201 | Facebook Marketplace | Graded | 72 | 59d ago | Jun 9 | View |
| $203 | TCGPlayer | Graded | 81 | 65d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $209 | Facebook Marketplace | Graded | 80 | 61d ago | Jun 7 | View |
| $209 | Facebook Marketplace | Graded | 68 | 74d ago | Jan 1 | View |
Recent Sales
| Price | Marketplace | Condition | Sold |
|---|---|---|---|
| $194 | TCGPlayer | Graded | 62d ago |
| $186 | Mercari | Graded | 63d ago |
| $180 | TCGPlayer | Graded | 64d ago |
| $188 | eBay | Graded | 64d ago |
| $206 | eBay | Graded | 68d ago |
| $202 | PWCC | Graded | 68d ago |
| $179 | TCGPlayer | Graded | 70d ago |
| $185 | TCGPlayer | Graded | 83d ago |
| $193 | eBay | Graded | 83d ago |
| $209 | Facebook Marketplace | Graded | 85d ago |
| $172 | eBay | Graded | 88d ago |
| $155 | TCGPlayer | Graded | 91d ago |
Signal Track Record
Did this asset's own Opportunity Scores precede outperformance? Each row is a past as-of date, scored point-in-time, with the realized benchmark-relative return that followed.
Data Provenance
Which signals on this page are real market data versus modeled by the deterministic engine. The terminal marks every source honestly.
- Reference price
- Simulated
- Fair value basis
- Simulated
- Lowest ask (deal)
- Simulated
- Active listings
- Simulated
- Card image
- Live
- Recent sales
- Simulated
- Population data
- Simulated
- Liquidity metrics
- Simulated
- Liquidity analytics
- Simulated
- Price history
- Simulated
Related Assets
Same character or set.
| Asset | Fair Value | Lowest | Discount | 30d | Avail | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 PikachuJungleSimulated
| $55,523 | $55,480 | 0.1% | 14.0% | 3 | 29 |
 SnorlaxJunglePSA 10Live-anchoredReal askas of Jun 4 · 56d oldsold-comp center2nd source (tcgcsv): $136 · sales-derived, ungradedView $72.75 · TCGPlayer
| $287 | $172 | 40.3% | 3.0% | 1 | 65 |
SnorlaxJungleSimulated
| $11,648 | $10,236 | 12.1% | 0.4% | 15 | 36 |
 PrimeapeJungleSimulated
| $165 | $160 | 2.7% | 10.4% | 12 | 32 |
 VictreebelJungleSimulated
| $199 | $184 | 7.4% | 23.8% | 22 | 42 |
 MeowthJungleCGC 10Simulated
| $428 | $386 | 9.6% | 13.2% | 4 | 54 |