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Dec 2Range $774 – $1.2KMay 30
Estimated Fair Value
$839
Lowest listing $7678.6% below
Bear Case
$726
Base Case
$839
Bull Case
$952
Price History
Opportunity Score
38- 9% below fair value+10 pts
- High valuation confidence+6 pts
- High listing quality (near mint)+6 pts
- Reputable seller+6 pts
- Strong demand (12 sales/mo)+4 pts
- Sales accelerating+3 pts
- Low active inventory+3 pts
Investment Thesis
neutral59Espeon Secret Rare is currently modestly undervalued, with stable price momentum over the last 30 days (+0.1%). Estimated fair value is $839 against a lowest active listing of $767. Valuation confidence is high based on 7-plus recent comparable sales.
Neutral: flat 30-day price action with healthy trading velocity and stable graded supply.
Active Listings
7
Sales / Month
11.5
Velocity Score
57/100
Moderate
Sales Velocity 30d
+8.3%
Confidence
92/100
How Fair Value Is Built
A transparent, weighted blend of market signals — no black boxes.
| Signal | Detail | Reference | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|
| recent sales | Volume-weighted average of recent sold comps | 816.14 | 50% |
| listing inventory | Average of active listing asking prices | 856.45 | 25% |
| price trend | Recent historical price trend projection | 813.05 | 25% |
| demand momentum | Adjustment for sales velocity momentum (rising demand raises value) | 1.66 | 20% |
Active Listings
| Price | Marketplace | Condition | Seller | Listed | Ends | Link |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $773 | Mercari | Near Mint | 62 | 23h ago | Jun 2 | View |
| $803 | eBay | Near Mint | 62 | 13d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $814 | Mercari | Near Mint | 65 | 7d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $815 | Facebook Marketplace | Near Mint | 80 | 2d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $823 | PWCC | Near Mint | 97 | 7d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $857 | Mercari | Near Mint | 97 | 3d ago | May 31 | View |
| $861 | Facebook Marketplace | Near Mint | 62 | 2d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $872 | PWCC | Near Mint | 61 | 3d ago | Jun 2 | View |
| $877 | Mercari | Near Mint | 96 | 18d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $926 | Facebook Marketplace | Near Mint | 65 | 15d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $929 | eBay | Near Mint | 97 | 17d ago | Jun 4 | View |
| $944 | Mercari | Near Mint | 88 | 7d ago | Jan 1 | View |
Recent Sales
| Price | Marketplace | Condition | Sold |
|---|---|---|---|
| $862 | Mercari | Near Mint | 3d ago |
| $857 | eBay | Near Mint | 7d ago |
| $993 | Mercari | Near Mint | 8d ago |
| $964 | Mercari | Near Mint | 8d ago |
| $899 | Facebook Marketplace | Near Mint | 11d ago |
| $768 | PWCC | Near Mint | 18d ago |
| $860 | Mercari | Near Mint | 19d ago |
| $863 | Facebook Marketplace | Near Mint | 19d ago |
| $834 | Facebook Marketplace | Near Mint | 21d ago |
| $880 | Facebook Marketplace | Near Mint | 24d ago |
| $936 | Mercari | Near Mint | 24d ago |
| $843 | Mercari | Near Mint | 25d ago |
Signal Track Record
Did this asset's own Opportunity Scores precede outperformance? Each row is a past as-of date, scored point-in-time, with the realized benchmark-relative return that followed.
Data Provenance
Which signals on this page are real market data versus modeled by the deterministic engine. The terminal marks every source honestly.
- Reference price
- Simulated
- Card image
- Simulated
- Recent sales
- Simulated
- Population data
- Simulated
- Liquidity metrics
- Simulated
- Price history
- Simulated
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