Price History
Opportunity Score
32- 7% below fair value+8 pts
- Reputable seller+6 pts
- High listing quality (graded)+6 pts
- High valuation confidence+4 pts
- Price up 10% over 30 days+4 pts
- Sales accelerating+3 pts
Investment Thesis
bullish68Mankey (PSA 9.5) is currently modestly undervalued, with rising price momentum over the last 30 days (+10.2%). Estimated fair value is $66 against a lowest active listing of $62. Valuation confidence is medium based on 15-plus modeled comparable sales.
Bullish: rising prices (+10.2% over 30d) with thin liquidity and rising graded population (5.3%/mo).
Risk Indicators
- Rising graded population may pressure prices
Grading ROI & Population Trend
Is it worth paying to grade this card? A transparent profit model from the real ungraded cost and the audited graded value, plus a read on graded-supply momentum. The cost and odds levers are modeled assumptions you can adjust — not market-price pins.
Population growing 2.3%/mo — steady supply across 7431 graded.
7,431 graded · 43% gem · +2.3%/mo
- Raw cost
- $61.53
- All-in cost
- $90.53+ $25.00 fee · $4.00 ship
- Graded value (per gem)
- $66.27
- Expected proceeds
- $17.3030% gem → $19.88 · less 13% fee
- Net profit / card
- -$73.23
- Breakeven graded value
- $347value needed to break even
Adjust modeled assumptions
These are modeled estimates, not market-price pins.
- Modeled gem-grade odds: 30% chance of PSA 9.5 (a modeled probability, not a market price). Non-gem outcomes are valued conservatively at $0.
- Modeled grading-service fee: $25.00 per card, plus $4.00 shipping/insurance (modeled service costs, not market prices).
- Modeled marketplace sell fee: 13.0% of graded proceeds (a modeled cost, not a market price).
- Raw cost and graded value trace to the existing audited references/pins — this panel authors no new market-price value.
Liquidity & Comp Explorer
How easily does this asset trade? Days-to-sell, sell-through rate, the spread between the lowest ask and the recent sold center, and inventory depth — all modeled over this asset's recorded sales and active listings. Explore the sale distribution with a date-range filter and an outlier-trim toggle.
Liquidity & Comp Explorer
- Days to sell
- 2.0dmodeled median sale gap
- Sell-through
- 50.0%over 90d window
- Bid-ask spread
- -10.1%lowest ask vs sold avg
- Inventory depth
- 15active listings
- Recent sold avg
- $260mean over 90d
- Lowest ask
- $233cheapest active listing
Comp Explorer
- Min
- $227
- Median
- $263
- Mean
- $262
- Max
- $300
Showing 33 of 33 sales
These liquidity signals are modeled deterministically over this asset's existing recorded sales and active listings — they author no new market-price value. Days-to-sell, sell-through and the bid-ask spread are analytical reads over those comps, not a live order book.
How Fair Value Is Built
A transparent, weighted blend of market signals — no black boxes.
| Signal | Detail | Reference | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|
| recent sales | Volume-weighted average of recent sold comps | 65.7 | 50% |
| listing inventory | Average of active listing asking prices | 73.4 | 25% |
| price trend | Recent historical price trend projection | 63.43 | 25% |
| population pressure | Adjustment for grading population growth (more supply lowers value) | -2.63 | 50% |
| demand momentum | Adjustment for sales velocity momentum (rising demand raises value) | 1.5 | 20% |
Active Listings
| Price | Marketplace | Condition | Seller | Listed | Ends | Link |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $233 | eBay | Graded | 77 | 56d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $237 | PWCC | Graded | 75 | 65d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $243 | Facebook Marketplace | Graded | 86 | 59d ago | Jun 7 | View |
| $251 | PWCC | Graded | 71 | 70d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $252 | eBay | Graded | 67 | 59d ago | Jun 8 | View |
| $260 | PWCC | Graded | 69 | 58d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $267 | TCGPlayer | Graded | 94 | 56d ago | Jun 10 | View |
| $271 | Facebook Marketplace | Graded | 89 | 62d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $280 | PWCC | Graded | 73 | 73d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $281 | PWCC | Graded | 85 | 67d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $284 | TCGPlayer | Graded | 93 | 66d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $287 | eBay | Graded | 90 | 75d ago | Jan 1 | View |
Recent Sales
| Price | Marketplace | Condition | Sold |
|---|---|---|---|
| $273 | Mercari | Graded | 55d ago |
| $261 | eBay | Graded | 59d ago |
| $251 | Facebook Marketplace | Graded | 64d ago |
| $237 | PWCC | Graded | 66d ago |
| $249 | eBay | Graded | 68d ago |
| $242 | Mercari | Graded | 68d ago |
| $251 | PWCC | Graded | 68d ago |
| $249 | TCGPlayer | Graded | 70d ago |
| $250 | TCGPlayer | Graded | 72d ago |
| $278 | eBay | Graded | 75d ago |
| $273 | PWCC | Graded | 76d ago |
| $272 | Mercari | Graded | 76d ago |
Signal Track Record
Did this asset's own Opportunity Scores precede outperformance? Each row is a past as-of date, scored point-in-time, with the realized benchmark-relative return that followed.
Data Provenance
Which signals on this page are real market data versus modeled by the deterministic engine. The terminal marks every source honestly.
- Reference price
- Simulated
- Fair value basis
- Simulated
- Lowest ask (deal)
- Simulated
- Active listings
- Simulated
- Card image
- Live
- Recent sales
- Simulated
- Population data
- Simulated
- Liquidity metrics
- Simulated
- Liquidity analytics
- Simulated
- Price history
- Simulated
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