Price History
Opportunity Score
41- 10% below fair value+12 pts
- High valuation confidence+7 pts
- Reputable seller+7 pts
- High listing quality (graded)+6 pts
- Strong demand (18 sales/mo)+5 pts
- Population growth slowing+5 pts
Investment Thesis
bearish31Pinsir (CGC 9) is currently modestly undervalued, with softening price momentum over the last 30 days (-13.5%). Estimated fair value is $132 against a lowest active listing of $118. Valuation confidence is high based on 18-plus modeled comparable sales.
Bearish: softening prices (-13.5% over 30d) amid healthy trading velocity and stable graded supply.
Risk Indicators
- Negative price momentum over the last 30 days
Grading ROI & Population Trend
Is it worth paying to grade this card? A transparent profit model from the real ungraded cost and the audited graded value, plus a read on graded-supply momentum. The cost and odds levers are modeled assumptions you can adjust — not market-price pins.
Population growing 2.3%/mo — steady supply across 3437 graded.
3,437 graded · 30% gem · +2.3%/mo
- Raw cost
- $118
- All-in cost
- $147+ $25.00 fee · $4.00 ship
- Graded value (per gem)
- $132
- Expected proceeds
- $34.3630% gem → $39.49 · less 13% fee
- Net profit / card
- -$112.79
- Breakeven graded value
- $564value needed to break even
Adjust modeled assumptions
These are modeled estimates, not market-price pins.
- Modeled gem-grade odds: 30% chance of CGC 9 (a modeled probability, not a market price). Non-gem outcomes are valued conservatively at $0.
- Modeled grading-service fee: $25.00 per card, plus $4.00 shipping/insurance (modeled service costs, not market prices).
- Modeled marketplace sell fee: 13.0% of graded proceeds (a modeled cost, not a market price).
- Raw cost and graded value trace to the existing audited references/pins — this panel authors no new market-price value.
Liquidity & Comp Explorer
How easily does this asset trade? Days-to-sell, sell-through rate, the spread between the lowest ask and the recent sold center, and inventory depth — all modeled over this asset's recorded sales and active listings. Explore the sale distribution with a date-range filter and an outlier-trim toggle.
Liquidity & Comp Explorer
- Days to sell
- 1.6dmodeled median sale gap
- Sell-through
- 68.0%over 90d window
- Bid-ask spread
- -20.4%lowest ask vs sold avg
- Inventory depth
- 8active listings
- Recent sold avg
- $319mean over 90d
- Lowest ask
- $254cheapest active listing
Comp Explorer
- Min
- $250
- Median
- $337
- Mean
- $344
- Max
- $426
Showing 29 of 29 sales
These liquidity signals are modeled deterministically over this asset's existing recorded sales and active listings — they author no new market-price value. Days-to-sell, sell-through and the bid-ask spread are analytical reads over those comps, not a live order book.
How Fair Value Is Built
A transparent, weighted blend of market signals — no black boxes.
| Signal | Detail | Reference | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|
| recent sales | Volume-weighted average of recent sold comps | 141.42 | 50% |
| listing inventory | Average of active listing asking prices | 135.06 | 25% |
| price trend | Recent historical price trend projection | 119.08 | 25% |
| population pressure | Adjustment for grading population growth (more supply lowers value) | -0.99 | 50% |
| demand momentum | Adjustment for sales velocity momentum (rising demand raises value) | -0.95 | 20% |
Active Listings
| Price | Marketplace | Condition | Seller | Listed | Ends | Link |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $254 | eBay | Graded | 91 | 70d ago | Jun 8 | View |
| $259 | Mercari | Graded | 78 | 57d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $260 | TCGPlayer | Graded | 99 | 72d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $269 | eBay | Graded | 67 | 72d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $274 | Facebook Marketplace | Graded | 62 | 63d ago | Jun 6 | View |
| $287 | Facebook Marketplace | Graded | 65 | 67d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $288 | TCGPlayer | Graded | 75 | 70d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $304 | Facebook Marketplace | Graded | 79 | 56d ago | Jan 1 | View |
Recent Sales
| Price | Marketplace | Condition | Sold |
|---|---|---|---|
| $283 | TCGPlayer | Graded | 54d ago |
| $250 | eBay | Graded | 54d ago |
| $322 | PWCC | Graded | 58d ago |
| $326 | eBay | Graded | 59d ago |
| $337 | eBay | Graded | 59d ago |
| $349 | TCGPlayer | Graded | 62d ago |
| $364 | Mercari | Graded | 66d ago |
| $303 | Mercari | Graded | 68d ago |
| $320 | TCGPlayer | Graded | 69d ago |
| $310 | PWCC | Graded | 70d ago |
| $335 | PWCC | Graded | 73d ago |
| $286 | TCGPlayer | Graded | 75d ago |
Signal Track Record
Did this asset's own Opportunity Scores precede outperformance? Each row is a past as-of date, scored point-in-time, with the realized benchmark-relative return that followed.
Data Provenance
Which signals on this page are real market data versus modeled by the deterministic engine. The terminal marks every source honestly.
- Reference price
- Simulated
- Fair value basis
- Simulated
- Lowest ask (deal)
- Simulated
- Active listings
- Simulated
- Card image
- Live
- Recent sales
- Simulated
- Population data
- Simulated
- Liquidity metrics
- Simulated
- Liquidity analytics
- Simulated
- Price history
- Simulated
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