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Gengar Secret Rare card artwork

Gengar Secret Rare

Simulated

Gengar Secret Rare · Neo Genesis · Secret Rare · 98/111

Character: Gengar

high confidencebearish3130d ▼14.3%
Estimated Fair Value
$1,243
Lowest listing $1,10011.4% below
Bear Case
$997
Base Case
$1,243
Bull Case
$1,480

Price History

Dec 2Range $814 – $1.7KMay 30

Opportunity Score

37
  • 11% below fair value+13 pts
  • High valuation confidence+7 pts
  • Reputable seller+6 pts
  • High listing quality (near mint)+6 pts
  • Strong demand (16 sales/mo)+5 pts

Investment Thesis

bearish31

Gengar Secret Rare is currently modestly undervalued, with softening price momentum over the last 30 days (-14.3%). Estimated fair value is $1243 against a lowest active listing of $1100. Valuation confidence is high based on 17-plus recent comparable sales.

Bearish: softening prices (-14.3% over 30d) amid healthy trading velocity and stable graded supply.

Risk Indicators

  • Negative price momentum over the last 30 days
Active Listings
17
Sales / Month
16.5
Velocity Score
83/100
Fast-moving
Sales Velocity 30d
-1.6%
Confidence
94/100

How Fair Value Is Built

A transparent, weighted blend of market signals — no black boxes.

SignalDetailReferenceWeight
recent salesVolume-weighted average of recent sold comps1254.6750%
listing inventoryAverage of active listing asking prices1329.2125%
price trendRecent historical price trend projection1147.3225%
demand momentumAdjustment for sales velocity momentum (rising demand raises value)-0.3120%

Active Listings

PriceMarketplaceConditionSellerListedEndsLink
$1,282PWCCNear Mint7916d agoJan 1View
$1,316Facebook MarketplaceNear Mint7617d agoJun 2View
$1,449MercariNear Mint962d agoJan 1View
$1,461Facebook MarketplaceNear Mint8312d agoJan 1View
$1,511TCGPlayerNear Mint9912d agoJan 1View

Recent Sales

PriceMarketplaceConditionSold
$1,469MercariNear Mint3d ago
$1,244eBayNear Mint7d ago
$1,335MercariNear Mint9d ago
$1,180eBayNear Mint12d ago
$1,271eBayNear Mint13d ago
$1,228PWCCNear Mint13d ago
$1,186MercariNear Mint14d ago
$1,360Facebook MarketplaceNear Mint17d ago
$1,202PWCCNear Mint18d ago
$1,147TCGPlayerNear Mint20d ago
$1,248TCGPlayerNear Mint21d ago
$1,231TCGPlayerNear Mint22d ago

Signal Track Record

Did this asset's own Opportunity Scores precede outperformance? Each row is a past as-of date, scored point-in-time, with the realized benchmark-relative return that followed.

Data Provenance

Which signals on this page are real market data versus modeled by the deterministic engine. The terminal marks every source honestly.

Reference price
Simulated
Card image
Simulated
Recent sales
Simulated
Population data
Simulated
Liquidity metrics
Simulated
Price history
Simulated

Related Assets

Same character or set.

AssetFair ValueLowestDiscount30dAvailScore
Gengar V (Full Art)XY EvolutionsSimulated
  • 9% below fair value+10 pts
  • Sales accelerating+9 pts
  • High valuation confidence+7 pts
$357$3258.9%▲7.8%1844
Lugia (Neo Genesis)Neo GenesisPSA 9Simulated
  • 21% below fair value+25 pts
  • Reputable seller+7 pts
  • High valuation confidence+7 pts
$1,255$98721.3%▼33.1%1851
Gengar Secret RareHeartGold SoulSilverBGS 9Simulated
  • 6% below fair value+8 pts
  • High valuation confidence+7 pts
  • Reputable seller+6 pts
$672$6296.4%▼0.2%1734
Umbreon VMAX (Alt Art)Neo GenesisSimulated
  • Reputable seller+8 pts
  • Price up 18% over 30 days+7 pts
  • High listing quality (near mint)+6 pts
$1,469$1,4352.3%▲17.9%535
Gengar ex (Special Illustration)Hidden FatesSimulated
  • 18% below fair value+21 pts
  • Sales accelerating+10 pts
  • High listing quality (near mint)+6 pts
$268$21918.2%▲1.7%1849
Gengar Secret RareHidden FatesCGC 9.5Simulated
  • 19% below fair value+23 pts
  • Population growth slowing+8 pts
  • Reputable seller+8 pts
$468$37719.3%▼12.2%956