Price History
Opportunity Score
56- 11% below fair value+13 pts
- Sales accelerating+9 pts
- Price up 26% over 30 days+8 pts
- High valuation confidence+7 pts
- High listing quality (graded)+6 pts
- Reputable seller+6 pts
- Strong demand (16 sales/mo)+5 pts
- Population growth slowing+3 pts
Investment Thesis
bullish93Nidorina (CGC 9) is currently modestly undervalued, with rising price momentum over the last 30 days (+26.1%). Estimated fair value is $287 against a lowest active listing of $255. Valuation confidence is high based on 12-plus modeled comparable sales.
Bullish: rising prices (+26.1% over 30d) with healthy trading velocity and stable graded supply.
Grading ROI & Population Trend
Is it worth paying to grade this card? A transparent profit model from the real ungraded cost and the audited graded value, plus a read on graded-supply momentum. The cost and odds levers are modeled assumptions you can adjust — not market-price pins.
Population growing 6.2%/mo — supply expanding quickly across 7014 graded.
7,014 graded · 33% gem · +6.2%/mo
- Raw cost
- $255
- All-in cost
- $284+ $25.00 fee · $4.00 ship
- Graded value (per gem)
- $287
- Expected proceeds
- $74.8230% gem → $86.00 · less 13% fee
- Net profit / card
- -$208.69
- Breakeven graded value
- $1,086value needed to break even
Adjust modeled assumptions
These are modeled estimates, not market-price pins.
- Modeled gem-grade odds: 30% chance of CGC 9 (a modeled probability, not a market price). Non-gem outcomes are valued conservatively at $0.
- Modeled grading-service fee: $25.00 per card, plus $4.00 shipping/insurance (modeled service costs, not market prices).
- Modeled marketplace sell fee: 13.0% of graded proceeds (a modeled cost, not a market price).
- Raw cost and graded value trace to the existing audited references/pins — this panel authors no new market-price value.
Liquidity & Comp Explorer
How easily does this asset trade? Days-to-sell, sell-through rate, the spread between the lowest ask and the recent sold center, and inventory depth — all modeled over this asset's recorded sales and active listings. Explore the sale distribution with a date-range filter and an outlier-trim toggle.
Liquidity & Comp Explorer
- Days to sell
- 3.5dmodeled median sale gap
- Sell-through
- 28.0%over 90d window
- Bid-ask spread
- +1.7%lowest ask vs sold avg
- Inventory depth
- 23active listings
- Recent sold avg
- $367mean over 90d
- Lowest ask
- $374cheapest active listing
Comp Explorer
- Min
- $266
- Median
- $326
- Mean
- $340
- Max
- $421
Showing 14 of 14 sales
These liquidity signals are modeled deterministically over this asset's existing recorded sales and active listings — they author no new market-price value. Days-to-sell, sell-through and the bid-ask spread are analytical reads over those comps, not a live order book.
How Fair Value Is Built
A transparent, weighted blend of market signals — no black boxes.
| Signal | Detail | Reference | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|
| recent sales | Volume-weighted average of recent sold comps | 258.14 | 50% |
| listing inventory | Average of active listing asking prices | 304.32 | 25% |
| price trend | Recent historical price trend projection | 297.71 | 25% |
| population pressure | Adjustment for grading population growth (more supply lowers value) | -1.69 | 50% |
| demand momentum | Adjustment for sales velocity momentum (rising demand raises value) | 4.29 | 20% |
Active Listings
| Price | Marketplace | Condition | Seller | Listed | Ends | Link |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $374 | PWCC | Graded | 66 | 71d ago | Jun 6 | View |
| $378 | eBay | Graded | 61 | 55d ago | Jun 9 | View |
| $385 | Mercari | Graded | 90 | 67d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $396 | eBay | Graded | 82 | 73d ago | Jun 9 | View |
| $402 | Mercari | Graded | 60 | 57d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $415 | eBay | Graded | 77 | 69d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $416 | Facebook Marketplace | Graded | 94 | 58d ago | Jun 7 | View |
| $418 | Mercari | Graded | 80 | 57d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $432 | Mercari | Graded | 61 | 73d ago | Jun 7 | View |
| $434 | eBay | Graded | 73 | 66d ago | Jun 9 | View |
| $443 | TCGPlayer | Graded | 71 | 71d ago | Jun 10 | View |
| $444 | TCGPlayer | Graded | 72 | 59d ago | Jun 9 | View |
Recent Sales
| Price | Marketplace | Condition | Sold |
|---|---|---|---|
| $389 | PWCC | Graded | 59d ago |
| $374 | TCGPlayer | Graded | 66d ago |
| $421 | eBay | Graded | 66d ago |
| $364 | eBay | Graded | 72d ago |
| $395 | TCGPlayer | Graded | 75d ago |
| $396 | Mercari | Graded | 80d ago |
| $315 | Facebook Marketplace | Graded | 83d ago |
| $333 | PWCC | Graded | 85d ago |
| $320 | Mercari | Graded | 88d ago |
| $301 | TCGPlayer | Graded | 97d ago |
| $315 | TCGPlayer | Graded | 104d ago |
| $280 | PWCC | Graded | 107d ago |
Signal Track Record
Did this asset's own Opportunity Scores precede outperformance? Each row is a past as-of date, scored point-in-time, with the realized benchmark-relative return that followed.
Data Provenance
Which signals on this page are real market data versus modeled by the deterministic engine. The terminal marks every source honestly.
- Reference price
- Simulated
- Fair value basis
- Simulated
- Lowest ask (deal)
- Simulated
- Active listings
- Simulated
- Card image
- Live
- Recent sales
- Simulated
- Population data
- Simulated
- Liquidity metrics
- Simulated
- Liquidity analytics
- Simulated
- Price history
- Simulated
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