Price History
Opportunity Score
44- 11% below fair value+13 pts
- Sales accelerating+9 pts
- High valuation confidence+7 pts
- Reputable seller+6 pts
- High listing quality (graded)+6 pts
- Strong demand (10 sales/mo)+3 pts
Investment Thesis
bearish39Venomoth (PSA 9.5) is currently modestly undervalued, with stable price momentum over the last 30 days (-4.7%). Estimated fair value is $202 against a lowest active listing of $180. Valuation confidence is high based on 15-plus modeled comparable sales.
Bearish: flat 30-day price action amid healthy trading velocity and rising graded population (6.7%/mo).
Risk Indicators
- Rising graded population may pressure prices
Grading ROI & Population Trend
Is it worth paying to grade this card? A transparent profit model from the real ungraded cost and the audited graded value, plus a read on graded-supply momentum. The cost and odds levers are modeled assumptions you can adjust — not market-price pins.
Population growth slowing to -0.2%/mo — supply tightening across 3904 graded.
3,904 graded · 26% gem · -0.2%/mo
- Raw cost
- $180
- All-in cost
- $209+ $25.00 fee · $4.00 ship
- Graded value (per gem)
- $202
- Expected proceeds
- $52.8030% gem → $60.69 · less 13% fee
- Net profit / card
- -$156.11
- Breakeven graded value
- $800value needed to break even
Adjust modeled assumptions
These are modeled estimates, not market-price pins.
- Modeled gem-grade odds: 30% chance of PSA 9.5 (a modeled probability, not a market price). Non-gem outcomes are valued conservatively at $0.
- Modeled grading-service fee: $25.00 per card, plus $4.00 shipping/insurance (modeled service costs, not market prices).
- Modeled marketplace sell fee: 13.0% of graded proceeds (a modeled cost, not a market price).
- Raw cost and graded value trace to the existing audited references/pins — this panel authors no new market-price value.
Liquidity & Comp Explorer
How easily does this asset trade? Days-to-sell, sell-through rate, the spread between the lowest ask and the recent sold center, and inventory depth — all modeled over this asset's recorded sales and active listings. Explore the sale distribution with a date-range filter and an outlier-trim toggle.
Liquidity & Comp Explorer
- Days to sell
- 2.1dmodeled median sale gap
- Sell-through
- 85.0%over 90d window
- Bid-ask spread
- +3.9%lowest ask vs sold avg
- Inventory depth
- 2active listings
- Recent sold avg
- $261mean over 90d
- Lowest ask
- $271cheapest active listing
Comp Explorer
- Min
- $189
- Median
- $253
- Mean
- $246
- Max
- $283
Showing 20 of 20 sales
These liquidity signals are modeled deterministically over this asset's existing recorded sales and active listings — they author no new market-price value. Days-to-sell, sell-through and the bid-ask spread are analytical reads over those comps, not a live order book.
How Fair Value Is Built
A transparent, weighted blend of market signals — no black boxes.
| Signal | Detail | Reference | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|
| recent sales | Volume-weighted average of recent sold comps | 198.11 | 50% |
| listing inventory | Average of active listing asking prices | 195.98 | 25% |
| price trend | Recent historical price trend projection | 208.28 | 25% |
| population pressure | Adjustment for grading population growth (more supply lowers value) | -3.33 | 50% |
| demand momentum | Adjustment for sales velocity momentum (rising demand raises value) | 4.57 | 20% |
Active Listings
Recent Sales
| Price | Marketplace | Condition | Sold |
|---|---|---|---|
| $283 | Mercari | Graded | 55d ago |
| $267 | eBay | Graded | 63d ago |
| $267 | eBay | Graded | 64d ago |
| $265 | Facebook Marketplace | Graded | 67d ago |
| $241 | PWCC | Graded | 67d ago |
| $262 | PWCC | Graded | 67d ago |
| $255 | TCGPlayer | Graded | 72d ago |
| $226 | TCGPlayer | Graded | 73d ago |
| $267 | eBay | Graded | 83d ago |
| $279 | TCGPlayer | Graded | 83d ago |
| $255 | PWCC | Graded | 89d ago |
| $257 | eBay | Graded | 93d ago |
Signal Track Record
Did this asset's own Opportunity Scores precede outperformance? Each row is a past as-of date, scored point-in-time, with the realized benchmark-relative return that followed.
Data Provenance
Which signals on this page are real market data versus modeled by the deterministic engine. The terminal marks every source honestly.
- Reference price
- Simulated
- Fair value basis
- Simulated
- Lowest ask (deal)
- Simulated
- Active listings
- Simulated
- Card image
- Live
- Recent sales
- Simulated
- Population data
- Simulated
- Liquidity metrics
- Simulated
- Liquidity analytics
- Simulated
- Price history
- Simulated
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