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Venomoth — Jungle — Rare Holo

Venomoth

PSA 9.5Simulated

Venomoth · Jungle · Rare Holo · 13

Character: Venomoth

high confidencebearish3930d ▼4.7%
Estimated Fair Value
$202
Lowest listing $18011.1% below
Search live listings:eBay activeeBay soldTCGplayer active
Bear Case
$177
Base Case
$202
Bull Case
$228

Price History

Dec 8Range $189 – $295Jun 5

Opportunity Score

44
  • 11% below fair value+13 pts
  • Sales accelerating+9 pts
  • High valuation confidence+7 pts
  • Reputable seller+6 pts
  • High listing quality (graded)+6 pts
  • Strong demand (10 sales/mo)+3 pts

Investment Thesis

bearish39

Venomoth (PSA 9.5) is currently modestly undervalued, with stable price momentum over the last 30 days (-4.7%). Estimated fair value is $202 against a lowest active listing of $180. Valuation confidence is high based on 15-plus modeled comparable sales.

Bearish: flat 30-day price action amid healthy trading velocity and rising graded population (6.7%/mo).

Risk Indicators

  • Rising graded population may pressure prices
Active Listings
15
Sales / Month
10.0
Velocity Score
50/100
Moderate
Sales Velocity 30d
+22.8%
Total Graded
7,154
Gem Mint
2,495
Population Growth
+6.7%
Rising — supply pressure

Grading ROI & Population Trend

Is it worth paying to grade this card? A transparent profit model from the real ungraded cost and the audited graded value, plus a read on graded-supply momentum. The cost and odds levers are modeled assumptions you can adjust — not market-price pins.

Grading ROI (model)
-74.7%
Grading not economical
slowing population

Population growth slowing to -0.2%/mo — supply tightening across 3904 graded.

3,904 graded · 26% gem · -0.2%/mo

Raw cost
$180
All-in cost
$209+ $25.00 fee · $4.00 ship
Graded value (per gem)
$202
Expected proceeds
$52.8030% gem → $60.69 · less 13% fee
Net profit / card
-$156.11
Breakeven graded value
$800value needed to break even

Adjust modeled assumptions

These are modeled estimates, not market-price pins.

  • Modeled gem-grade odds: 30% chance of PSA 9.5 (a modeled probability, not a market price). Non-gem outcomes are valued conservatively at $0.
  • Modeled grading-service fee: $25.00 per card, plus $4.00 shipping/insurance (modeled service costs, not market prices).
  • Modeled marketplace sell fee: 13.0% of graded proceeds (a modeled cost, not a market price).
  • Raw cost and graded value trace to the existing audited references/pins — this panel authors no new market-price value.

Liquidity & Comp Explorer

How easily does this asset trade? Days-to-sell, sell-through rate, the spread between the lowest ask and the recent sold center, and inventory depth — all modeled over this asset's recorded sales and active listings. Explore the sale distribution with a date-range filter and an outlier-trim toggle.

Liquidity & Comp Explorer

Simulated
Days to sell
2.1dmodeled median sale gap
Sell-through
85.0%over 90d window
Bid-ask spread
+3.9%lowest ask vs sold avg
Inventory depth
2active listings
Recent sold avg
$261mean over 90d
Lowest ask
$271cheapest active listing

Comp Explorer

Min
$189
Median
$253
Mean
$246
Max
$283

Showing 20 of 20 sales

These liquidity signals are modeled deterministically over this asset's existing recorded sales and active listings — they author no new market-price value. Days-to-sell, sell-through and the bid-ask spread are analytical reads over those comps, not a live order book.

How Fair Value Is Built

A transparent, weighted blend of market signals — no black boxes.

SignalDetailReferenceWeight
recent salesVolume-weighted average of recent sold comps198.1150%
listing inventoryAverage of active listing asking prices195.9825%
price trendRecent historical price trend projection208.2825%
population pressureAdjustment for grading population growth (more supply lowers value)-3.3350%
demand momentumAdjustment for sales velocity momentum (rising demand raises value)4.5720%

Active Listings

PriceMarketplaceConditionSellerListedEndsLink
$271PWCCGraded7363d agoJan 1View
$291MercariGraded6173d agoJan 1View

Recent Sales

PriceMarketplaceConditionSold
$283MercariGraded55d ago
$267eBayGraded63d ago
$267eBayGraded64d ago
$265Facebook MarketplaceGraded67d ago
$241PWCCGraded67d ago
$262PWCCGraded67d ago
$255TCGPlayerGraded72d ago
$226TCGPlayerGraded73d ago
$267eBayGraded83d ago
$279TCGPlayerGraded83d ago
$255PWCCGraded89d ago
$257eBayGraded93d ago

Signal Track Record

Did this asset's own Opportunity Scores precede outperformance? Each row is a past as-of date, scored point-in-time, with the realized benchmark-relative return that followed.

Data Provenance

Which signals on this page are real market data versus modeled by the deterministic engine. The terminal marks every source honestly.

Reference price
Simulated
Fair value basis
Simulated
Lowest ask (deal)
Simulated
Active listings
Simulated
Card image
Live
Recent sales
Simulated
Population data
Simulated
Liquidity metrics
Simulated
Liquidity analytics
Simulated
Price history
Simulated

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