Price History
Opportunity Score
30- Reputable seller+7 pts
- High listing quality (graded)+6 pts
- High valuation confidence+5 pts
- Low active inventory+4 pts
- 3% below fair value+4 pts
- Population growth slowing+3 pts
- Strong demand (6 sales/mo)+2 pts
Investment Thesis
neutral50Venomoth (PSA 9.5) is currently fairly valued, with stable price momentum over the last 30 days (-0.0%). Estimated fair value is $198 against a lowest active listing of $192. Valuation confidence is high based on 6-plus modeled comparable sales.
Neutral: flat 30-day price action with thin liquidity and stable graded supply.
Grading ROI & Population Trend
Is it worth paying to grade this card? A transparent profit model from the real ungraded cost and the audited graded value, plus a read on graded-supply momentum. The cost and odds levers are modeled assumptions you can adjust — not market-price pins.
Population growth slowing to -0.2%/mo — supply tightening across 3904 graded.
3,904 graded · 26% gem · -0.2%/mo
- Raw cost
- $192
- All-in cost
- $221+ $25.00 fee · $4.00 ship
- Graded value (per gem)
- $198
- Expected proceeds
- $51.6530% gem → $59.37 · less 13% fee
- Net profit / card
- -$169.26
- Breakeven graded value
- $846value needed to break even
Adjust modeled assumptions
These are modeled estimates, not market-price pins.
- Modeled gem-grade odds: 30% chance of PSA 9.5 (a modeled probability, not a market price). Non-gem outcomes are valued conservatively at $0.
- Modeled grading-service fee: $25.00 per card, plus $4.00 shipping/insurance (modeled service costs, not market prices).
- Modeled marketplace sell fee: 13.0% of graded proceeds (a modeled cost, not a market price).
- Raw cost and graded value trace to the existing audited references/pins — this panel authors no new market-price value.
Liquidity & Comp Explorer
How easily does this asset trade? Days-to-sell, sell-through rate, the spread between the lowest ask and the recent sold center, and inventory depth — all modeled over this asset's recorded sales and active listings. Explore the sale distribution with a date-range filter and an outlier-trim toggle.
Liquidity & Comp Explorer
- Days to sell
- 2.1dmodeled median sale gap
- Sell-through
- 85.0%over 90d window
- Bid-ask spread
- +3.9%lowest ask vs sold avg
- Inventory depth
- 2active listings
- Recent sold avg
- $261mean over 90d
- Lowest ask
- $271cheapest active listing
Comp Explorer
- Min
- $189
- Median
- $253
- Mean
- $246
- Max
- $283
Showing 20 of 20 sales
These liquidity signals are modeled deterministically over this asset's existing recorded sales and active listings — they author no new market-price value. Days-to-sell, sell-through and the bid-ask spread are analytical reads over those comps, not a live order book.
How Fair Value Is Built
A transparent, weighted blend of market signals — no black boxes.
| Signal | Detail | Reference | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|
| recent sales | Volume-weighted average of recent sold comps | 202.12 | 50% |
| listing inventory | Average of active listing asking prices | 211.57 | 25% |
| price trend | Recent historical price trend projection | 207.05 | 25% |
| population pressure | Adjustment for grading population growth (more supply lowers value) | -1.71 | 50% |
| demand momentum | Adjustment for sales velocity momentum (rising demand raises value) | -2.12 | 20% |
Active Listings
Recent Sales
| Price | Marketplace | Condition | Sold |
|---|---|---|---|
| $283 | Mercari | Graded | 55d ago |
| $267 | eBay | Graded | 63d ago |
| $267 | eBay | Graded | 64d ago |
| $265 | Facebook Marketplace | Graded | 67d ago |
| $241 | PWCC | Graded | 67d ago |
| $262 | PWCC | Graded | 67d ago |
| $255 | TCGPlayer | Graded | 72d ago |
| $226 | TCGPlayer | Graded | 73d ago |
| $267 | eBay | Graded | 83d ago |
| $279 | TCGPlayer | Graded | 83d ago |
| $255 | PWCC | Graded | 89d ago |
| $257 | eBay | Graded | 93d ago |
Signal Track Record
Did this asset's own Opportunity Scores precede outperformance? Each row is a past as-of date, scored point-in-time, with the realized benchmark-relative return that followed.
Data Provenance
Which signals on this page are real market data versus modeled by the deterministic engine. The terminal marks every source honestly.
- Reference price
- Simulated
- Fair value basis
- Simulated
- Lowest ask (deal)
- Simulated
- Active listings
- Simulated
- Card image
- Live
- Recent sales
- Simulated
- Population data
- Simulated
- Liquidity metrics
- Simulated
- Liquidity analytics
- Simulated
- Price history
- Simulated
Related Assets
Same character or set.
| Asset | Fair Value | Lowest | Discount | 30d | Avail | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | $60,229 | $52,724 | 12.5% | 11.6% | 18 | 51 |
 SnorlaxJunglePSA 10Live-anchoredReal askas of Jun 4 · 56d oldsold-comp center2nd source (tcgcsv): $136 · sales-derived, ungradedView $72.75 · TCGPlayer
| $297 | $172 | 42.1% | 3.8% | 1 | 68 |
SnorlaxJungleSimulated
| $11,874 | $10,067 | 15.2% | 2.0% | 9 | 44 |
 VenomothScarlet & Violet 151Simulated
| $127 | $101 | 20.0% | 20.6% | 16 | 49 |
 PrimeapeJungleSimulated
| $169 | $158 | 6.2% | 11.2% | 10 | 39 |
 VictreebelJungleSimulated
| $194 | $178 | 8.0% | 15.3% | 22 | 34 |