PokéAlpha
Back to dashboard

Lucario V (Full Art)

CGC 10Simulated

Lucario V (Full Art) · Scarlet & Violet 151 · Full Art · 13/207

Character: Lucario

high confidencebearish1430d 19.3%
Estimated Fair Value
$507
Lowest listing $43015.1% below
Bear Case
$435
Base Case
$507
Bull Case
$574

Price History

Dec 2Range $307 – $574May 30

Opportunity Score

45
  • 15% below fair value+18 pts
  • Reputable seller+7 pts
  • High valuation confidence+7 pts
  • High listing quality (graded)+6 pts
  • Sales accelerating+5 pts
  • Strong demand (10 sales/mo)+3 pts

Investment Thesis

bearish14

Lucario V (Full Art) (CGC 10) is currently trading at a meaningful discount to fair value, with softening price momentum over the last 30 days (-19.3%). Estimated fair value is $507 against a lowest active listing of $430. Valuation confidence is high based on 20-plus recent comparable sales.

Bearish: softening prices (-19.3% over 30d) amid thin liquidity and rising graded population (6.7%/mo).

Risk Indicators

  • Rising graded population may pressure prices
  • Negative price momentum over the last 30 days
Active Listings
20
Sales / Month
9.5
Velocity Score
48/100
Moderate
Sales Velocity 30d
+12.2%
Total Graded
6,829
Gem Mint
2,720
Population Growth
+6.7%
Rising — supply pressure

How Fair Value Is Built

A transparent, weighted blend of market signals — no black boxes.

SignalDetailReferenceWeight
recent salesVolume-weighted average of recent sold comps543.4850%
listing inventoryAverage of active listing asking prices492.825%
price trendRecent historical price trend projection466.9625%
population pressureAdjustment for grading population growth (more supply lowers value)-3.3550%
demand momentumAdjustment for sales velocity momentum (rising demand raises value)2.4420%

Active Listings

PriceMarketplaceConditionSellerListedEndsLink
$378PWCCGraded7320d agoJan 1View
$390PWCCGraded8112d agoJan 1View
$394Facebook MarketplaceGraded8423h agoJun 2View
$404TCGPlayerGraded858d agoJan 1View
$407MercariGraded792d agoJan 1View
$420MercariGraded727d agoJun 4View
$426TCGPlayerGraded7015d agoJan 1View
$434TCGPlayerGraded6410d agoJun 2View
$439eBayGraded644d agoJan 1View
$471TCGPlayerGraded9717d agoJan 1View
$471eBayGraded8821d agoJun 4View
$481Facebook MarketplaceGraded762d agoJan 1View

Recent Sales

PriceMarketplaceConditionSold
$406PWCCGraded17h ago
$483TCGPlayerGraded1d ago
$404Facebook MarketplaceGraded5d ago
$421MercariGraded6d ago
$401MercariGraded8d ago
$384Facebook MarketplaceGraded11d ago
$396Facebook MarketplaceGraded14d ago
$399eBayGraded14d ago
$391PWCCGraded15d ago
$351Facebook MarketplaceGraded23d ago
$337Facebook MarketplaceGraded26d ago
$350eBayGraded27d ago

Signal Track Record

Did this asset's own Opportunity Scores precede outperformance? Each row is a past as-of date, scored point-in-time, with the realized benchmark-relative return that followed.

Data Provenance

Which signals on this page are real market data versus modeled by the deterministic engine. The terminal marks every source honestly.

Reference price
Simulated
Card image
Simulated
Recent sales
Simulated
Population data
Simulated
Liquidity metrics
Simulated
Price history
Simulated

Related Assets

Same character or set.

AssetFair ValueLowestDiscount30dAvailScore
Charizard Secret RareScarlet & Violet 151BGS 9.5Simulated
  • Sales accelerating+8 pts
  • Population growth slowing+8 pts
  • Price up 31% over 30 days+8 pts
$781$7434.8%31.3%1448
Umbreon PromoScarlet & Violet 151Simulated
  • 9% below fair value+11 pts
  • Reputable seller+8 pts
  • High valuation confidence+7 pts
$310$2819.4%9.6%2341
Umbreon V (Full Art)Scarlet & Violet 151BGS 9.5Simulated
  • 9% below fair value+10 pts
  • High valuation confidence+7 pts
  • High listing quality (graded)+6 pts
$470$4298.6%8.8%2134
Umbreon ex (Illustration Rare)Scarlet & Violet 151Simulated
  • High valuation confidence+7 pts
  • Price up 16% over 30 days+6 pts
  • High listing quality (near mint)+6 pts
$279$2741.8%16.0%931
Pikachu (Illustrator-style)Scarlet & Violet 151PSA 10Simulated
  • 20% below fair value+23 pts
  • Sales accelerating+10 pts
  • High listing quality (graded)+6 pts
$610$48919.8%12.9%1250
Umbreon PromoScarlet & Violet 151Simulated
  • 17% below fair value+20 pts
  • High valuation confidence+7 pts
  • Reputable seller+7 pts
$294$24516.7%12.9%2242