PokéAlpha
Back to dashboard

Gyarados V (Full Art)

Simulated

Gyarados V (Full Art) · Base Set · Full Art · 92/102

Character: Gyarados

medium confidencebearish1830d 21.9%
Estimated Fair Value
$386
Lowest listing $32316.4% below
Bear Case
$318
Base Case
$386
Bull Case
$449

Price History

Dec 2Range $278$480May 30

Opportunity Score

53
  • 16% below fair value+19 pts
  • Sales accelerating+11 pts
  • Low active inventory+6 pts
  • High listing quality (near mint)+6 pts
  • Reputable seller+5 pts
  • High valuation confidence+4 pts
  • Strong demand (4 sales/mo)+1 pts

Investment Thesis

bearish18

Gyarados V (Full Art) is currently trading at a meaningful discount to fair value, with softening price momentum over the last 30 days (-21.9%). Estimated fair value is $386 against a lowest active listing of $323. Valuation confidence is medium based on 4-plus recent comparable sales.

Bearish: softening prices (-21.9% over 30d) amid thin liquidity and stable graded supply.

Risk Indicators

  • Negative price momentum over the last 30 days
Active Listings
4
Sales / Month
4.5
Velocity Score
23/100
Illiquid
Sales Velocity 30d
+27.1%
Confidence
60/100

How Fair Value Is Built

A transparent, weighted blend of market signals — no black boxes.

SignalDetailReferenceWeight
recent salesVolume-weighted average of recent sold comps378.9450%
listing inventoryAverage of active listing asking prices369.4825%
price trendRecent historical price trend projection335.9925%
demand momentumAdjustment for sales velocity momentum (rising demand raises value)5.4320%

Active Listings

PriceMarketplaceConditionSellerListedEndsLink
$316PWCCNear Mint9612d agoJan 1View
$331eBayNear Mint8919d agoJun 2View
$337MercariNear Mint6120d agoJan 1View
$337TCGPlayerNear Mint645d agoJan 1View
$369TCGPlayerNear Mint804d agoMay 31View
$374eBayNear Mint983d agoJan 1View

Recent Sales

PriceMarketplaceConditionSold
$333TCGPlayerNear Mint10d ago
$391eBayNear Mint13d ago
$367Facebook MarketplaceNear Mint14d ago
$350Facebook MarketplaceNear Mint22d ago
$324MercariNear Mint23d ago
$312Facebook MarketplaceNear Mint25d ago
$339TCGPlayerNear Mint29d ago
$351eBayNear Mint41d ago
$400Facebook MarketplaceNear Mint48d ago
$350Facebook MarketplaceNear Mint51d ago

Signal Track Record

Did this asset's own Opportunity Scores precede outperformance? Each row is a past as-of date, scored point-in-time, with the realized benchmark-relative return that followed.

Data Provenance

Which signals on this page are real market data versus modeled by the deterministic engine. The terminal marks every source honestly.

Reference price
Simulated
Card image
Simulated
Recent sales
Simulated
Population data
Simulated
Liquidity metrics
Simulated
Price history
Simulated

Same character or set.

AssetFair ValueLowestDiscount30dAvailScore
Base ZardBase SetPSA 10Simulated
  • Population growth slowing+8 pts
  • Price up 35% over 30 days+8 pts
  • Sales accelerating+8 pts
$9,601$10,034-4.5%34.7%454
Rayquaza ex (Illustration Rare)Base SetSimulated
  • 10% below fair value+12 pts
  • Reputable seller+7 pts
  • High valuation confidence+7 pts
$913$81810.4%8.8%2038
Base Set Booster Box (Sealed)Base SetSimulated
  • 11% below fair value+13 pts
  • High valuation confidence+7 pts
  • High listing quality (sealed)+6 pts
$45,068$40,08111.1%11.9%2040
Umbreon ex (Special Illustration)Base SetSimulated
  • 16% below fair value+19 pts
  • Reputable seller+7 pts
  • High valuation confidence+6 pts
$2,030$1,70216.2%24.9%1042
Pikachu Ultra RareBase SetBGS 9Simulated
  • Price up 45% over 30 days+8 pts
  • Reputable seller+8 pts
  • Low active inventory+6 pts
$1,186$1,1820.4%45.3%443
Mewtwo Ultra RareBase SetPSA 10Simulated
  • Low active inventory+7 pts
  • Reputable seller+7 pts
  • High listing quality (graded)+6 pts
$2,018$2,058-2.0%6.3%335