Price History
Opportunity Score
40- 15% below fair value+18 pts
- High listing quality (graded)+6 pts
- Reputable seller+6 pts
- High valuation confidence+4 pts
- Sales accelerating+3 pts
- Population growth slowing+3 pts
Investment Thesis
bearish18Venomoth (PSA 9) is currently trading at a meaningful discount to fair value, with softening price momentum over the last 30 days (-13.6%). Estimated fair value is $67 against a lowest active listing of $56. Valuation confidence is medium based on 23-plus modeled comparable sales.
Bearish: softening prices (-13.6% over 30d) amid thin liquidity and stable graded supply.
Risk Indicators
- Negative price momentum over the last 30 days
Grading ROI & Population Trend
Is it worth paying to grade this card? A transparent profit model from the real ungraded cost and the audited graded value, plus a read on graded-supply momentum. The cost and odds levers are modeled assumptions you can adjust — not market-price pins.
Population growing 4.4%/mo — steady supply across 3678 graded.
3,678 graded · 55% gem · +4.4%/mo
- Raw cost
- $56.33
- All-in cost
- $85.33+ $25.00 fee · $4.00 ship
- Graded value (per gem)
- $66.52
- Expected proceeds
- $17.3630% gem → $19.96 · less 13% fee
- Net profit / card
- -$67.97
- Breakeven graded value
- $327value needed to break even
Adjust modeled assumptions
These are modeled estimates, not market-price pins.
- Modeled gem-grade odds: 30% chance of PSA 9 (a modeled probability, not a market price). Non-gem outcomes are valued conservatively at $0.
- Modeled grading-service fee: $25.00 per card, plus $4.00 shipping/insurance (modeled service costs, not market prices).
- Modeled marketplace sell fee: 13.0% of graded proceeds (a modeled cost, not a market price).
- Raw cost and graded value trace to the existing audited references/pins — this panel authors no new market-price value.
Liquidity & Comp Explorer
How easily does this asset trade? Days-to-sell, sell-through rate, the spread between the lowest ask and the recent sold center, and inventory depth — all modeled over this asset's recorded sales and active listings. Explore the sale distribution with a date-range filter and an outlier-trim toggle.
Liquidity & Comp Explorer
- Days to sell
- 3.7dmodeled median sale gap
- Sell-through
- 61.0%over 90d window
- Bid-ask spread
- -16.7%lowest ask vs sold avg
- Inventory depth
- 7active listings
- Recent sold avg
- $230mean over 90d
- Lowest ask
- $191cheapest active listing
Comp Explorer
- Min
- $200
- Median
- $236
- Mean
- $230
- Max
- $277
Showing 15 of 15 sales
These liquidity signals are modeled deterministically over this asset's existing recorded sales and active listings — they author no new market-price value. Days-to-sell, sell-through and the bid-ask spread are analytical reads over those comps, not a live order book.
How Fair Value Is Built
A transparent, weighted blend of market signals — no black boxes.
| Signal | Detail | Reference | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|
| recent sales | Volume-weighted average of recent sold comps | 70.63 | 50% |
| listing inventory | Average of active listing asking prices | 63.99 | 25% |
| price trend | Recent historical price trend projection | 60.89 | 25% |
| population pressure | Adjustment for grading population growth (more supply lowers value) | -1.64 | 50% |
| demand momentum | Adjustment for sales velocity momentum (rising demand raises value) | 1.65 | 20% |
Active Listings
| Price | Marketplace | Condition | Seller | Listed | Ends | Link |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $191 | Facebook Marketplace | Graded | 76 | 75d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $195 | TCGPlayer | Graded | 76 | 63d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $220 | Facebook Marketplace | Graded | 80 | 57d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $226 | TCGPlayer | Graded | 95 | 67d ago | Jun 6 | View |
| $229 | TCGPlayer | Graded | 66 | 59d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $237 | eBay | Graded | 68 | 64d ago | Jan 1 | View |
| $247 | TCGPlayer | Graded | 95 | 57d ago | Jan 1 | View |
Recent Sales
| Price | Marketplace | Condition | Sold |
|---|---|---|---|
| $203 | TCGPlayer | Graded | 55d ago |
| $200 | PWCC | Graded | 55d ago |
| $220 | PWCC | Graded | 59d ago |
| $252 | TCGPlayer | Graded | 67d ago |
| $241 | TCGPlayer | Graded | 69d ago |
| $277 | TCGPlayer | Graded | 73d ago |
| $243 | TCGPlayer | Graded | 76d ago |
| $236 | Facebook Marketplace | Graded | 81d ago |
| $237 | PWCC | Graded | 82d ago |
| $216 | TCGPlayer | Graded | 85d ago |
| $201 | Mercari | Graded | 90d ago |
| $212 | PWCC | Graded | 92d ago |
Signal Track Record
Did this asset's own Opportunity Scores precede outperformance? Each row is a past as-of date, scored point-in-time, with the realized benchmark-relative return that followed.
Data Provenance
Which signals on this page are real market data versus modeled by the deterministic engine. The terminal marks every source honestly.
- Reference price
- Simulated
- Fair value basis
- Simulated
- Lowest ask (deal)
- Simulated
- Active listings
- Simulated
- Card image
- Live
- Recent sales
- Simulated
- Population data
- Simulated
- Liquidity metrics
- Simulated
- Liquidity analytics
- Simulated
- Price history
- Simulated
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